Score Prediction for Texas Tech vs. BYU in Big 12 Championship
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When Texas Tech faced off with BYU in Week 11, the game took center stage. Many expected it to be a preview of the Big 12 Championship Game, and four weeks later, both sides are ready to battle again after delivering on expectations.
The Red Raiders pulled out on top in November in a masterful defensive effort that stifled the Cougars' running game. BYU struggled to get out of its own territory, going 3-for-14 on third downs and being outsnapped in the red zone 28-4.
This time, though, Tech will not have the same support of the Red Raiders' faithful in Jones AT&T Stadium. While Texas Tech should have the distance advantage with the game held in Arlington, Texas, the Cougars expect fans to show up in droves.
According to Taggart Barron, a chairman of the BYU Alumni Association's Dallas chapter, the expectation is to have 35,000-40,000 fans, much different than the previous game at home
Championship Week‼️ pic.twitter.com/i9ZBufEHv4
— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) December 1, 2025
BYU and Texas Tech are making their first appearances in the Big 12 title game, and each side wants to make program history. Both have stood out all season as two of the best teams in the country, currently ranking inside the top 15 and two of six 11-1 Power Four teams.
This season, Texas Tech ranks ninth in adjusted EPA/play, which measures a team's efficiency and effectiveness weighted for the opponent; BYU ranks 17th by the same metric. Tech is also ranked fifth by ESPN's FPI metric, with BYU landing at 15th.
Between the painted lines, though, the game is going to be a battle of the trenches. BYU head coach Kalani Sitake, who was named the 2025 Big 12 Coach of the Year, is known for his ability to establish top-shelf line play, both on offense and defense. Sitake also coaches very disciplined and hard-working teams, meaning Tech will need to compete to its best ability.
"The one thing about playing a BYU team, if you look at them, they're a very big, physical team," Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire said during the team's press conference on Monday, Dec. 1.
"I mean, we talked about it the first time we played them; they're really big up front. They're really big at the linebacker position. They're really big at the quarterback position, the running back position. The strain and playing to our standard is going to help us hopefully turn out and be on the right side of that."
In November, Texas Tech was up to the task. The Red Raiders only allowed 11 rushing yards before contact on 27 attempts. BYU freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier was pressured on 37.2% of his dropbacks, despite only being blitzed seven times out of 43 dropbacks (16.7%).
With All-Big 12 selections across the defensive front seven — David Bailey, Romello Height, Lee Hunter, A.J. Holmes Jr., Ben Roberts, and Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Jacob Rodriguez — Tech can match BYU's physicality up front.
However, the Cougars have been successful all season in the trenches; their pass-blocking grade (74.3) ranks fifth in the Big 12, while their run blocking (73.5) ranks third and 10th nationally. As well, the Big 12's leading rusher, LJ Martin, was dealing with an injury in Week 11. He averaged 135 yards per game in his final three contests to end the season, proving he is back in form.
The thing that ultimately gets me is this: There have been 61 power teams to go 11-1 in the CFP era. Every other one has finished top 10 after the regular season. All but two were top 7.
— Shehan Jeyarajah (@ShehanJeyarajah) December 5, 2025
What is the argument for BYU being uniquely unimpressive among that group? There isn't one. https://t.co/LNzhzIBZot
Both sides have a great deal at stake. The Cougars are the only 11-1 team to finish the regular season outside of the top 10, according to Shehan Jeyarajah, and feel slighted by the College Football Committee. They are playing for a spot in the postseason tournament, currently sitting on the outside looking in, ranked 11th.
Meanwhile, the No. 4 Red Raiders are looking at a potential first-round bye in the playoffs and aiming to prove they are the best team in the Big 12.
It will be a tall task to beat the same team twice in the same season. Since 2017, when the Big 12 resumed its traditional title game format without divisions, the teams in the championship game faced each other in the regular season on six different occasions. Only twice did a team win both games, with the series being split four times.
"It's hard to beat somebody twice, and we'll be reintroduced to BYU in our team meeting," McGuire said at his press conference. He recounted times he had done so while coaching high school football, with varying results. But in the end, he plans to fall back on his staff: "feeding off that experience of what we could do."
A battlefield fit for a Big 12 title fight 🎨#Big12FB | @EdwardJones pic.twitter.com/OuAZl4N2D1
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) December 5, 2025
In the first matchup, the sportsbooks projected the Red Raiders as 11.5-point favorites. This Saturday, similar results are anticipated, as Tech is a 12.5-point favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
The total is under 50 points (49.5), which has traditionally favored a BYU team that wins in tight, grind-it-out games; Sitake and the Cougars have mastered the art of the comeback in recent seasons, making it important for Tech to get an early lead and keep its foot on the gas.
With both sides already familiar with one another, anything could happen in this Big 12 Championship Game, which will kick off at AT&T Stadium on Saturday, Dec. 6, at noon ET (11 a.m. local time) in Arlington. For a more in-depth breakdown of how Texas Tech and BYU match up, and how both sides succeeded and failed in Week 11, read the Big 12 Championship Preview.
Score: Texas Tech 27-20
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-43389ae7766a84cbb8a6c33939d17968.jpeg "Jordan Epp")
Jordan Epp is a journalist who graduated from Texas A&M in 2022 and is passionate about telling stories, sharing news, and finding ways to entertain people through the medium of sports. He has formerly worked as a writer and editor at The Battalion and The Eagle, covering football in College Station, Texas, and served as the managing editor for PFSN.
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