Texas Falls Out of NCAA Tournament Projections After Latest Loss

After winning two straight games against ranked opponents, the Texas Longhorns have now lost two in a row against unranked opponents after Wednesday night's loss to the Kentucky Wildcats.

Heading into the matchup, ESPN's Joe Lunardi had head coach Sean Miller's squad as one of his projected last four teams in, despite the home defeat at the hands of rival Texas A&M. But following the away loss to Mark Pope's Wildcats, Lunardi dropped Texas down into his first four out, flipping the Longhorns with 15-5 Virginia Tech, which beat Syracuse on the road Wednesday.

Clearly on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament in Lunardi's eyes, Texas has a lot of convincing to do in order to establish itself as a team deserving of making the field in March.

Texas currently on the NCAA Tournament bubble

Sean Miller Texas Longhorns College Basketball — Jan 17, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Sean Miller reacts during the first half in a 74-70 loss against the Texas A&M Aggies at Moody Center. Mandatory Credit: Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images | Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images

A year ago, in their final season with Rodney Terry at the helm, the Longhorns finished the regular season with a record of 17-14, including 6-12 in the Southeastern Conference. Now, in its first season under Miller, the program finds itself in a similar situation.

Sitting at 11-8, and 2-4 in conference play, the Longhorns need to go 6-6 over the rest of the regular season to surpass last year's win total before postseason play. That is doable for an offensively capable roster that is averaging the fifth-best field-goal percentage, seventh-most points per game in the SEC and ranks 16th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom.

What needs to change are the Longhorns' defensive tendencies, which Miller straightforwardly mentioned in his postgame press conference on Wednesday.

"What our team, and this is a Texas problem, has is we have a virus called fouling," Miller said. "It has plagued us from the opening tip of the first game until tonight. It's not the officials, it's not Kentucky. We will foul the living s*** out of you.

"We will foul a three-point shooter. We will foul at the end of the clock. We will leave our feet on drives. We will reach. You describe the foul, and the team that I am coaching will commit it. ... It's hard to win an SEC road game when the home team is 30-for-35 from the line. ... We have to be able to play defense without fouling."

The upcoming schedule for Texas MBB

Tramon Mark Dailyn Swain Texas Longhorns Schedule — Jan 14, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns guard Tramon Mark (12) celebrates a win against the Vanderbilt Commodores after the game at Moody Center. Mandatory Credit: Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images | Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images

The next stretch is a crucial one for the Longhorns, as they attempt to right their wrongs and stay relevant in the national conversation.

Miller's team has two straight Quad 1 win opportunities against Georgia at home on Saturday and on the road versus Auburn on Jan. 28. Then, Texas will head north to Norman to rival territory to take on an Oklahoma team that has lost its last five games.

The Longhorns have shown the capability to beat tournament-caliber teams in their wins against Alabama, Vanderbilt and NC State and put up fights against top-tier programs in Duke and UConn. But heartbreakers against Arizona State and Mississippi State, as well as blowouts by Virginia and Tennessee, have demonstrated little stability in Texas' quality of play on a night-by-night basis.

The better version of the Longhorns, especially defensively, will have to show up if Miller's squad wants to come out of this stretch with one or multiple wins and give itself momentum into the back half of SEC play.