Are the Texas Longhorns on the Playoff Bubble?

Sitting at 3-1, the Texas Longhorns have one of the better records in college football.

They lost their first contest to the now-No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes in a game that saw two elite defenses duke it out before three get-right games that resembled a rollercoaster.

Although Vegas gives the Longhorns +700 odds to win the National Championship, ESPN does not seem so convinced. According to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, the Texas Longhorns have a 51 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff.

Will Texas Make the Playoff?

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) keeps the ball for a touchdown during the first half against the Texas El Paso Miners at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

How far Texas goes in 2025 directly falls on how quickly Manning can settle in and figure out his timing.

“The timing of the offense is held in the quarterbacks’ feet,” analyst Joel Klatt said in September. “I personally believe, after watching Arch, he is too fast right now. He is pressing and he is ahead of the offense… he is ahead of the time of the offense. When that happens, typically you lose your balance, you lose your pocket presence.. You lose your wide receivers. When you do let go of the football, you are moving so fast in your own mind, you typically throw those balls short.”

Once Manning gets his feet right and starts completing some of the layup throws he has been missing, the Longhorns will look like the team that was fielded in 2024, arguably maybe even better.

Texas is set to embark on a four-week road stretch. On Saturday, the Horns head to Gainesville to take on the Florida Gators before heading up north to battle the Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry. The next week, the Longhorns go to Kentucky before facing a daunting Mississippi State team to round out the month of October.

A lot of the Longhorns’ future success depends on what they can do during the grueling road stretch. A loss to Oklahoma drastically increases the importance of the last game of the season, a home matchup against a Texas A&M team that looks like it can do some damage. Essentially, the Longhorns need to go four-for-four in October, something coach Steve Sarkisian is confident his team can do.

“I think that we've created a culture around here where connectivity is so important, and you got to have connectivity on the road, you got 100,000 people cheering against you.” Sarkisian said. “Ultimately, we've played pretty good. We haven't played perfect. I don't know if anybody plays perfect on the road, but when you're connected and you play well, you can give yourselves opportunities to find success along the way, and you can overcome some of the adversity that you're going to get faced with.”