ESPN Analytics Predict Matchup Between No. 10 Texas & No. 5 Georgia

The Longhorns and Bulldogs are set to face in a top-10 matchup with a College Football Playoff birth potentially on the line for both teams.

Jan 1, 2019; New Orleans, LA, USA; Texas Longhorns wide receiver Collin Johnson (9) runs against Georgia Bulldogs defensive back Eric Stokes (27) after a catch in the second half of the 2019 Sugar Bowl at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Texas Longhorns won 28-21. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-Imagn Images | Chuck Cook-Imagn Images

The Texas Longhorns will take on the Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday, Nov. 15, at 6:30 p.m., inside Sanford Stadium, in Athens, Ga.

After dropping both games to the Bulldogs last season, Texas looks to bounce back and upset Georgia on the road.

ESPN Analytics released their statistics and predictions for the highly anticipated weekend matchup.

Texas vs Georgia Analytics

Nov 1, 2025; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian observes the second half against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

The Longhorns open up as 6.5-point underdogs against Georgia, and they have a 40.2% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.

The Bulldogs only have three home losses since the 2021 season, all coming from the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Georgia’s one loss this season was at home against Alabama, where they lost a narrow 24-21 game.

On the other hand, Texas has lost two of the five away or neutral sight games this season to Ohio State and Florida.

The two games against the Bulldogs last year didn't go exactly as Texas wanted.

The Longhorns suffered a tough 30-15 loss at home in the two teams’ regular season game.

They once again faced off in Atlanta, Ga., in the SEC Championship game. In a much closer battle, Georgia stunned the Longhorns in an overtime thriller, winning 22-19 on a field goal.

Looking ahead to this year’s game, the teams look much different than last season.

Sophomore quarterback Arch Manning leads the charge for Texas, totaling 2,123 passing yards and 18 passing touchdowns. He is also a threat on the ground, rushing for 203 yards and six touchdowns this season.

Junior quarterback Gunner Stockton has had a great first season as Georgia’s starter, and he has 2,040 passing yards and 15 touchdowns this year.

Georgia’s main advantage is in the ground game. This season, the Bulldogs have rushed for 1,775 yards and 22 touchdowns.

Texas has had struggles with getting the run game going in several games, and the Longhorns have rushed for 1,218 yards and 11 touchdowns this year.

The two programs are very similar in the passing attack. Texas has 177 receptions for 2,215 yards and 19 touchdowns. Georgia has 188 catches for 2,152 yards and 16 touchdowns.

Defensively, Texas has a clear advantage. The Longhorns rank No. 6 in the SEC Conference in total defense, while Georgia ranks No. 9.

Texas plays best when they can protect the quarterback, and with a revamped offensive line and a Georgia defense that struggles getting pressure, the Longhorns have a shot to show out offensively.