Kirk Herbstreit Makes Bold Claim Regarding Arch Manning's Draft Stock

Kirk Herbstreit made his claim for where Texas Longhorns' quarterback Arch Manning stands in next years draft class

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) runs with the ball against the Michigan Wolverines during the first half at Camping World Stadium. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

The 2025 pre-season was full of expectations for Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. The 2025 season was full of tough lessons and a learning curve in his first full season as the starting signal-caller.

Now, as the preseason starts back up, with it so do the expectations for Manning. With a full year under his belt and a talented cast around him assembled through the transfer portal, all signs point to 2026 being the year he takes the big leap forward.

At least that is what ESPN Gameday Analyst and big-time commentator Kirk Herbstreit told Crain & Cone of On3 in their latest podcast, that 2026 is the year he proves he is 'the guy'.

Unfair Expectations and A Bounce Back

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) looks to make a pass in the first half against the Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Manning was one of the most hyped recruits in the country when he committed to the Longhorns, and a two-year waiting period before he became the official starter did nothing to temper those expectations, only igniting them more.

When it was finally his turn to take over the helm, he was the most hyped quarterback entering a season since Tim Tebow led the Florida Gators back in the day. Yet none of those words came from him, or anything he had shown, but were now lofty goals he was expected to contend with.

“I just think he’s been through a tough stretch, where the expectations were almost unfair,” Herbstreit said on the episode of the podcast. “And a lot of it was his own doing. He felt the tension; I think it affected him. When you’re going into a season, it’s like, ‘He’s better than both of his uncles, he’s better than his grandpa,’ it’s like every throw had to be, ‘Whoa, did you see that?'”

Despite offensive line issues and a running back and receiver room decimated with injuries, Manning still put up 3,163 passing yards, which placed him 27th in the country. He also added 26 touchdowns through the air, finishing 17th in the country. For a first-year starter, those would have been great numbers, and he would have been hailed for his performance, given the bumps he encountered.

Now, though, they were learning lessons, and he came back with a year under his belt and a revamped roster. He added the number one receiver from the transfer portal in Cam Coleman, a dynamic backfield with Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers, and a deep offensive line to protect him. All signs point to this being the year he delivers on those expectations, at least in the eyes of Herbstreit.

“He lived it, he experienced it, he survived it,” Herbstreit said regarding the Longhorns QB. “I’ll be shocked, when the dust settles, if he’s not the guy in the class.”

Manning will have more expectations, a tougher schedule, and a deeper quarterback draft class to compete with. But if what he showed from this past season is any indication of what his floor is, then he will be the guy in the class.