Where Texas Football Ranks in Latest College Football Playoff Projection

It’s that time of year again — when the transfer portal begins to slow, most recruiting classes are finalized and spring practice sits just around the corner. With little on-field action to dissect, college football turns to its favorite offseason pastime: projecting what the upcoming season might look like.

That’s exactly what national media outlets have started to do. And for the Texas Longhorns, the early outlook is a positive one.

With the 2026 college football season still months away, CBS Sports released its way-too-early College Football Playoff projection, placing Texas firmly in the postseason conversation.

Where does CBS Sports have Texas in the playoff bracket?

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning rushes with the ball for a touchdown. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

In its early 12-team CFP bracket for the upcoming season, CBS Sports projects Texas as the No. 3 seed, slotting the Longhorns behind preseason favorites Miami and Notre Dame but ahead of other contenders like Indiana and Texas Tech.

Under this projection, Texas would face the winner of a first-round matchup between the No. 6 and No. 11 seeds in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1, 2027.

The Longhorn’s projected seeding reflects confidence in Texas’ roster returning to playoff-caliber after a challenging 2025 campaign.

CBS Sports analyst Brad Crawford noted that Texas’s strength of schedule within the SEC (including a highly anticipated Sept. 12 matchup at home against Ohio State) could boost its playoff resume if the Longhorns emerge victorious. Last season’s loss to the Buckeyes put Texas behind the eight ball early, but a win this time around could prove pivotal.

As Crawford wrote in his projection, a strong showing against Ohio State and a dominant SEC performance could give Texas “breathing room” in the playoff discussion.

Crawford also pointed to the return of quarterback Arch Manning and an influx of impact transfers as key reasons Texas lands in the top four, pointing out that this “could potentially be Sarkisian's best team at Texas.”

While the projection comes long before the season kicks off, it’s another vote of confidence from the college football sphere in the Longhorns’ potential return to College Football Playoff contention. After two straight berths in recent years, Texas aims to get itself back in the conversation this season and avoid pitfalls that previously kept it from securing a top seed.

There are still plenty of variables to play out before any truly meaningful predictions can be made. But for now, these early CFP projections offer a glimpse at how pundits view Texas’ 2026 title hopes. And so far, the future looks bright.