One Analyst Reveals Why a 3-Loss Texas Could Make the College Football Playoff

The Texas Longhorns have a tough slate coming up, but one analyst believes they could drop a game and still get selected for the College Football Playoff.

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian waits to lead his team onto the field prior to the game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Whether the Texas Longhorns belong in the 2025 College Football Playoff remains unknown, but with just three weeks left in the regular season, fans and analysts have started to discuss the hypotheticals.

The Longhorns are a two-loss team with three difficult matchups ahead, meaning that winning out would obviously help them make the strongest case for themselves. 

However, one topic of debate addresses this key question: what happens if they establish a record of 2-1 in these last three games? ESPN analyst Greg McElroy revealed his thoughts on the matter.

Could a 9-3 Texas team make the cut?

Nov 1, 2025; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian observes the second half against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

The Longhorns head to Athens, Georgia, this weekend to take on the Georgia Bulldogs in what will be an incredibly important matchup for them to perform in. That being said, McElroy believes a close loss won’t necessarily result in their elimination from the College Football Playoff conversation.

“I think that Texas would be in a really good spot if they were to lose this weekend close (against Georgia),” McElroy said. “We’ve seen the committee reward close losses. We’ve already seen that this year. If they were to lose close this weekend, or close against Texas A&M, then I think that Texas would have a pretty strong argument.”

The first of the Longhorns’ two losses this season was against the Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 1, and the second came against the Florida Gators in the opening week of SEC play.

Here’s what McElroy has to say of the team’s first two losses and a potential third:

“They could say ‘Well, we could have played powder puffs in the nonconference,'” McElroy said. “‘Instead, we decided to go on the road and play in Columbus… Yes, we lost to Florida. It wasn’t good. Yes, we lost a close one to either Georgia or Texas A&M, but we at least challenged ourselves.'”

This take might have truth to it, but it would exponentially increase the pressure of the Longhorns’ following two matchups against the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Texas A&M Aggies.

The Aggies are anticipated to be the tougher opponent of these final two, given their undefeated record and No. 3 ranking in both the AP Poll and the College Football Playoff Rankings. 

In ideal circumstances, the Longhorns would be able to rally around the momentum of a six-game win streak to help them take down the Aggies at home. A 10-2 record would be much more convincing than one that reads 9-3, and it could eliminate a lot of the concern surrounding whether the team should be let in. 

Texas’ fate will be revealed within these next few weeks, both by their upcoming games and by the College Football Playoff selection committee.