Predicting Every Win and Loss on the 2026 Texas Longhorns Schedule

The Texas Longhorns are without a doubt one of the most talented teams in the country, and they are ranked No. 5 in the AP Preseason Top 25.

That said, despite the talented roster, it is going to be far from an easy road for the Horns, who have arguably the most difficult schedule in the entire country.

In total, Texas plays five top-11 teams - No. 1 Ohio State, No. 8 Texas A&M, No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 10 Oklahoma and No. 11 LSU - and seven total top-20 teams, with No. 20 Tennessee and No. 25 Missouri rounding out the group.

So can the Longhorns survive the gauntlet? Texas Longhorns On SI shares our game-by-game predictions below.

Predicting Every Game on the 2026 Texas Schedule

Week 1: Sept. 5 vs. Texas State

Texas State Bobcats quarterback Brad Jackson looks downfield in the first quarter of the game between Arizona State Sun Devils | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Texas State is talented. They have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Brad Jackson, and an explosive offense around him. That said, Texas is favored by more than 30 points in this game. They make short work of the Bobcats and get the win.

Win (1-0)

Week 2: Sept. 12 vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Ohio State Buckeyes linebacker Arvell Reese pursues Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Now comes the first major test for the Longhorns with No. 1 Ohio State coming to town. Last season, the Buckeyes put the clamps on the Texas offense and made Arch Manning look pedestrian. Things will be much different this time around.

Texas gets a close win over the Buckeyes and remains undefeated.

Win (2-0)

Week 3: Sept. 20 vs. UTSA

Texas Longhorns running back Velton Gardner — Texas Longhorns running back Velton Gerdner tackled during the game against UTSA at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Another easy win here for Texas. UTSA is a good program, but they are no match for a Texas team that would likely be ranked No. 1 in the country at this point.

Win (3-0)

Week 4: Sept. 26 at Tennessee

Tennessee Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel prior to the game against the Florida Gators | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The first SEC test of the season comes on the road at Neyland Stadium vs. Tennessee. This is one of the toughest environments in the country. Texas has the advantage here, with Tennessee still figuring out its quarterback situation, and gets a tough win over the Vols.

Win (4-0)

Week 6: Oct. 10 vs. Oklahoma (Dallas)

Oklahoma hasn't scored a touchdown against Texas in over 1,000 days, dating back to 2023. The Sooners should be better on offense, and as long as they stay healthy, it's hard to argue that they won't be able to break that streak. Regardless, Texas is the better football team at nearly every position on the field, with the exception of one or two spots on defense.

Texas wins, and extends its winning streak over Oklahoma to three seasons.

Win (5-0)

Week 7: Oct. 17 vs. Florida

Texas is out for revenge in this one after the debacle in Gainesville last season. Florida won't make it easy, but Texas is the better football team and wins by two to three scores.

Win (6-0)

Week 8: Oct. 24 vs. Ole Miss

Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss celebrates a play during the CFP Fiesta Bowl against Miami | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Outside of Ohio State, this will be the toughest game of the season to this point for Texas. Ole Miss returns two Heisman Trophy candidates in QB Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy, and has improved at nearly every position on the field outside of perhaps wide receiver. This will be a high-flying offensive explosion.

Texas hasn't lost at home since the Georgia loss in Austin in 2024, but that streak comes to an end here, and the Rebels win on a last-second field goal.

Loss (6-1)

Week 9: Oct. 31 vs. Mississippi State

Texas Longhorns wide receiver/running back Ryan Niblett returns a punt as he breaks a tackle attempt by Mississippi State Bulldogs defensive back Cyrus Reyes | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Mississippi State pushed Texas to the brink last year. The Horns will be more than ready this year and ready to rebound after the Ole Miss loss.

The Longhorns win big.

Win (7-1)

Week 10: Nov. 7 at Missouri

Missouri Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz talks to his team during a timeout during the first quarter of the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

This will be tougher than the experts think. Eli Drinkwitz has one of the most dangerous offenses in the SEC that thrives at running the football. Texas takes care of business here, but they sweat a little bit more than they would have liked.

Win (8-1)

Week 11: Nov. 14 at LSU

Quarterback Sam Leavitt 10 during LSU Football practice. August 18, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

LSU is going to be a really good football team. It's just hard to believe they can put it all together in Year 1 under Lane Kiffin with 40-plus new players. Lane Kiffin also has a tendency to press a little too hard against top teams, resulting in more mistakes than they can survive here.

Texas wins a tough one.

Win (9-1)

Week 12: Nov. 21 vs. Arkansas

Arkansas is bad. Texas is very good, and moves on with another win.

Win (10-1)

Week 13: Nov. 28 at Texas A&M

Texas Longhorns defensive back Kobe Black makes an interception on a pass intended for Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Mario Craver | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In the last two seasons, this game has dictated a spot in the SEC Championship game. Why not one more time? Both of these teams are going to be very good. Texas A&M has some questions along the offensive line and at linebacker. Texas isn't proven at those spots either.

This game being in College Station gives Texas A&M an edge, but Arch Manning is better than Marcel Reed, and that edge is bigger.

Win (11-1)

Bonus Prediction

SEC Championship: Dec. 5 vs. Georgia

Texas gets a chance to shake the monkey off their back in Atlanta against Georgia, and they take full advantage of it. Georgia is a tremendously talented team, but they don't have the weapons on the outside to keep up with Texas.

Its close, but the Longhorns finally overcome their Kirby Smart demons.

Win (12-1)

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