Texas Football's Biggest Upset Opportunity in 2026 Is Very Clear

With seven regular season home games in 2026, the Longhorns' biggest opportunity for an upset comes early.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) leaves the field following the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium on Aug. 30, 2025. Ohio State won 14-7. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Compared to their 2025 regular season, the Texas Longhorns have a much more favorable schedule ahead of them when the 2026-27 season begins rolling in September.

The Longhorns will now play seven home games and four away games, along with the Red River Rivalry in the Dallas Cotton Bowl, compared to last season's hefty away game stretch that resulted in losses to Ohio State, Florida, and Georgia away from the Forty Acres.

Even so, Texas plays several new opponents that each have good chances of becoming threatening contenders within the SEC. The Longhorns' biggest opportunity for an upset, however, comes before conference play begins.

Playing At Home, Texas Will Have Another Attempt At Upsetting Ohio State

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Carnell Tate (17) catches a touchdown pass over Texas Longhorns defensive back Jaylon Guilbeau (3) during the second half of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium on Aug. 30, 2025. Ohio State won 14-7. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Texas will have another rematch against Ohio State in just its second game of the season on Sept. 12, giving the Longhorns their third try in three seasons to overcome the Buckeyes in what seems to be a budding non-conference rivalry.

Texas recently played in a tight competition against Ohio State, losing its first game of the 2025 season in a 14-7 defensive shutdown. The game ultimately was a disappointment for the preseason No. 1-ranked Longhorns, but they still managed to hold the Buckeyes to their lowest-scoring game of the entire season, seconded by national champion Indiana during the Big 10 Championship game, which saw the Hoosiers beat the Buckeyes 13-10.

This time, however, the Longhorns will host the Buckeyes at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium — and the environment could make all the difference, as well as the transfer portal-boosted roster and redshirt junior quarterback Arch Manning's development over the 2025 season.

Ohio State retained many of its offensive starters, including redshirt sophomore Julian Sayin and junior wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. Texas' defensive performance last season highlighted flaws in Ohio State's offense in the loss, especially with a near-complete shutdown of Smith. To the Longhorns' benefit, the Buckeyes lost several defensive starters to the draft that contributed to last season's victory — including linebacker Arvell Reese and safety Caleb Downs, who both were drafted in the first round.

With both teams losing several defensive veterans, it's likely that the upcoming game will look markedly different from last season's in terms of the two delivering an offensive battle instead of a defensive shutdown similar to before. The matchup between Manning and Sayin will highlight two quarterbacks who underwent their first starts and gained considerable development as the season progressed, and both teams contain star wide receivers in Ohio State's Smith and Texas' junior Cam Coleman.

If it's possible, the Longhorns are facing even more pressure than they undertook last year in Manning's first year at the helm. If Texas hopes to make a run for a title in 2026, an upset of Ohio State will be critical — and with the game at home, this will be the Longhorns' best chance at that upset.

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