Texas Longhorns vs. Kentucky Wildcats Way-Too-Early Preview: What the Stats Say

The Texas Longhorns and Kentucky Wildcats had only played once before their 2024 meeting -- that came in 1951 when the coaching matchup was Ed Price versus the all-timer Bear Bryant. Texas won that game by a score of 7-6.

Needless to say, there is very little history between these two schools on the football field, but with Texas now a member of the Southeastern Conference, the two state schools will now face off relatively regularly.

After a 31-14 win at Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium last season, the Longhorns will head to Kroger Field this time around.

Looking at recent years

In the past three seasons, the Wildcats are 5-9 against Top 25-ranked teams, specifically 2-4 at home. Against Top 10 teams -- which Texas is expected to be on Oct. 18 -- Kentucky is 1-7 since 2022, with that one win coming on the road at No. 6 Ole Miss last season.

Kentucky has not pulled off a big home upset since 2021, when it defeated the No. 10 Florida Gators. However, they caused plenty of problems for the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs in 2024, Kirby Smart's team narrowly escaping with a 13-12 victory.

The Texas Longhorns have not lost an away game in the past two seasons and Kentucky is not the most daunting of their road matchups this season, coming off a 1-7 record in SEC play. Still, the Wildcats cannot be overlooked by Texas.

The last time Mark Stoops' team finished with a losing record, which was in 2020, his team responded with a 10-3 record. That type of success will not be replicated due to Kentucky having less talent than most SEC programs and one of the toughest schedules in the nation. Yet, the Wildcats did overhaul their roster this offseason and will be searching for that signature underdog win in a bounce-back season -- the home game against a high-ranking Texas Longhorns team rightfully stands out.

Returning production numbers

In a May 22 article, ESPN's Bill Connelly listed the returning production numbers for FBS schools. Both Kentucky and Texas underwent much personnel turnover this offseason, starting with their quarterbacks and in the trenches.

Kentucky is at No. 49 (59 percent) in the post-spring returning production rankings, while Texas falls at No. 82 (51 percent).

What mostly creates the difference between the two is their place in the offensive rankings. Kentucky is returning 63 percent of offensive production, good for 47th, and Texas only has 40 percent, ranking 109th.

Returning production numbers factor in portal replacements -- Connelly writes that "if you lose your starting quarterback but bring in someone else's from the portal, your returning yardage is probably somewhere around 50%" -- which is why Kentucky's number is where it is.

The comparison illustrates that Kentucky will be the more production-experienced of the teams when they face off on Oct. 18. Through the transfer portal, Stoops and his staff added physicality both offensively and defensively to develop a group that could challenge some of the conference's powerhouses.

Texas will go into every game this season anticipating a win. The Kentucky game will be one it has no excuse to lose. And they certainly shouldn't lose. But a lopsided victory like last season's at DKR should maybe not be the overwhelming expectation.