What Scouts Think About Arch Manning's NFL Draft Chances

Arch Manning was supposed to be the Texas Longhorns’ quarterback for just one season. He was touted as the best passer in the nation before a catastrophic tumble to start the season.

He went from a Heisman Trophy candidate on the No. 1 team in the nation to being called college football’s first flop. Manning seemed to ease into the starting role at the end of the year and revived the Longhorns’ season with his impressive performance.

Now, the hype around Manning has returned. According to Fox Sports NFL reporter Ralph Vacchiano, several scouts believe Manning would be the top quarterback in the 2026 draft class, should he choose to enter, though the expectation in Austin is that he will return for another season.

Arch Manning, First Overall Pick?

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell Matthew Golden NFL Draft — Wide receiver Matthew Golden of Texas poses with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and Green Bay Packers President and CEO Mark Murphy after being selected by the Green Bay Packers during the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft at Lambeau Field on April 24, 2025, in Green Bay. | Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

To the untrained eye, Manning’s early season performance made him seem like he would be worthy of a third to fourth-round draft pick.

However, that's not the case according to one college scout.

"He might still go No. 1 [overall]," one college area scout told Vacchiano. "All the tools are there, even if the performance was erratic. He might need a little time to grow into himself as a player. But he’s got the size (6-foot-4, 219 pounds), the arm, the intangibles, and the kid had some great games. I think I’d still feel better about his future than anyone else in this year’s class."

Vacchiano also learned that one NFL executive believes the consensus around the league is that Manning is considered a guaranteed first-round pick based on one factor.

"Talent," an executive for an NFC team revealed as Manning’s biggest draw. "He never lost that. It’s what all the hype was about from the beginning, and it’s still there. It’s not alarming that he was inconsistent in his first year as a starter in the SEC. It’s perfectly normal. The expectations were probably way too high, anyway. But his arm, his head, his feet, his overall ability. I can still see every bit of it."

However it seems like teams know what Manning would need to be successful and he can not go to just any franchise.

"It might be hard to take him really high if you need a quarterback right now, because he just didn’t look ready for the NFL to me," an NFL front office executive said. "But he will be. If you can afford a year or two to let him grow, maybe let him sit behind a veteran and learn like Patrick Mahomes did [in Kansas City] and Jordan Love [did in Green Bay], the payoff could be absolutely huge."