What Wins and What Loses the Game for Texas vs. Oklahoma in 2026

These are the Texas Longhorns’ paths to success and defeat against the Oklahoma Sooners in the 2026 edition of the Red River Rivalry.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning before the game between the Longhorns and the Oklahoma Sooners at the Cotton Bowl. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The 122nd edition of the Red River Rivalry will kick off on Saturday, Oct. 10, as the Texas Longhorns take on the Oklahoma Sooners at the Cotton Bowl. With the State Fair of Texas as the backdrop, the battle for the Golden Hat will commence with the Sooners looking to reclaim the trophy after multiple years in Austin, Texas.

This rivalry, one of the most historic in college football, has seen several different eras. The most recent has been a shift from Oklahoma’s dominance under Lincoln Riley; despite success in other regards, the Sooners have been outlasted by the Longhorns over the last half-decade.

Could the streak continue for Texas, or does Oklahoma’s trend in the right direction spell trouble for the Longhorns?

Why Texas Will Win the Red River Rivalry in 2026

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian wears the Golden Hat after the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at the Cotton Bowl. | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

There is a reason Texas is 3–1 during the Steve Sarkisian–Brent Venables era of the rivalry. The Longhorns have had the much better offense during this stretch, and it has not been close.

Sarkisian is an offensive coach known for drawing up schemes and plays to get his best athletes open and in space. This powerful running game and explosive short passing game have slipped away from the Longhorns in recent seasons, but Texas is returning to its roots in 2026.

Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo make one of the best wide receiver duos in the country, giving Arch Manning the talent to go from ascending quarterback to bona fide superstar. Meanwhile, running backs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers will bring balance to the offense with players who can keep the team ahead of the chains and break off big runs.

Red River Rivalry Season	Oklahoma Offensive Yards	Texas Offensive Yards
2025	258	302
2024	237	406
2023	486	527
2022	195	585
Average	294.0	455.0

Both teams have talented defenses, but Oklahoma can not keep up with Texas on offense, especially after the Longhorns stacked up on defense in the transfer portal. They added players like linebacker Rasheem Biles and cornerback Bo Mascoe to a unit that returned the SEC’s sack leader, EDGE Colin Simmons.

The Longhorns will extend their win streak to three for the first time since the turn of the century in another game where Texas controls the pace while Oklahoma tries to keep up.

Why Oklahoma Will Beat Texas in the Red River Rivalry

Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kendal Daniels reacts after a tackle against Texas Longhorns running back Quintrevion Wisner during the first quarter at the Cotton Bowl. | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Texas has outperformed Oklahoma over the last few seasons, but the margin for error has closed every year. The Sooners have become a defensive powerhouse, and it is time for that to translate inside the Cotton Bowl.

In each of the last four seasons, Texas has outperformed Oklahoma’s averages in yards and points per game during their matchup. The teams are very familiar with one another, and it is a matter of time until Venables finds his counterpunch.

Meanwhile, the Sooners’ offense is bound for a positive bounce back. The team limped its way through the season, averaging 21.5 points and 308.9 yards per game in SEC play. However, the Sooners averaged 31.3 points and 430.3 yards in the first four weeks before quarterback John Mateer’s injury.

Oklahoma is banking on Mateer returning to the form he had with Washington State in 2024, when he was healthy. He has a dangerous wide receiver trio, a strong arm and dynamic running ability, enough to break any game open.

The combination of an elite defense and an athletic quarterback could stymie a Texas team that had games against Ohio State and Tennessee in the early weeks of the season. Oklahoma is ready to unlock its full potential in 2026 after being a one-phase team last season.

Sign up to our free newsletter and follow us on Facebook, X and Instagram for the latest news.