ESPN Projects High-Stakes CFP Matchup for Texas Longhorns

Following back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances, the Texas Longhorns fell short in 2025, going 9-3 in the regular season and missing the SEC title game. Despite this, there was plenty of promise during an up-and-down season, which points to a potential rebound in 2026.

Arch Manning had a strong November and December, and the Longhorns beat several ranked teams, including Michigan, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt.

Paired with a strong transfer portal class, expectations are high for Texas in 2026, and ESPN’s Bill Connelly projected they return to CFP success.

ESPN Projects Texas Longhorns Return to CFP, Rematch in 1st Round

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) reacts after throwing a touchdown pass against the Arkansas Razorbacks. — Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) reacts after throwing a touchdown pass in the first half against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Connelly, the creator of ESPN’s SP+ metric, used an exercise to project which teams would make the College Football Playoff in 2026. According to Mark Schlabach's Way-Too-Early Top 25, the Longhorns slot in at No. 2, as the SEC's top-ranked team.

However, Connelly used a more conference-dependent approach to determine his College Football Playoff bracket, leaving Texas on the outside for a first-round bye. When analyzing the SEC, he projected the winner to be either Georgia or a team that has proven it can beat the Bulldogs' head coach, Kirby Smart, which the Longhorns have not yet done.

Georgia and Texas have played three times under Steve Sarkisian’s tenure as the head coach, twice in the regular season and once in the SEC Championship Game. Sarkisian and the Longhorns are 0-3 so far, with a scoring margin of +43 in favor of the Bulldogs.

Instead, Connelly projects that Texas finishes with the third-highest ranking in the SEC, falling behind Georgia (No. 2) and Texas A&M (No. 10). They would match up with No. 7 Ohio State in this scenario, which would be the fourth contest between these two programs in less than 800 days, including the second in the College Football Playoff.

Ohio State Buckeyes running back CJ Donaldson (12) runs through Texas Longhorns linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. (0). — Ohio State Buckeyes running back CJ Donaldson (12) runs through Texas Longhorns linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. (0) during the second half of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium on Aug. 30, 2025. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Despite being two of the biggest brands in college football, Texas and Ohio State have only played five times in program history, with the first matchup in 2005. The Buckeyes lead the series 3-2 and have an active two-game winning streak.

After a home-and-home in 2005 and 2006 and a 2008 Fiesta Bowl win by Texas, the two sides did not rematch until Jan. 1, 2025, when they met in the semifinal of the 2024 College Football Playoff. Ohio State won 28-14, claiming the Cotton Bowl Classic in Arlington, Texas, en route to a national championship.

The two teams coincidentally rematched in the opener of the following season, the beginning of their 2025 campaigns. It was the first leg of a two-season home-and-home series, and Ohio State won again, 14-7, at home in Ohio Stadium.

The second leg of the series will open the 2026 season, when the Buckeyes travel to Austin, Texas. Ohio State is 1-0 at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium, winning in 2006. It was the 36th all-time meeting between a No. 1 and No. 2 team in the regular season.

Ohio State's A.J. Hawk sacks Texas' Vince Young to stop Texas from scoring a touchdown in the final seconds of the first half — Ohio State's A.J. Hawk, 47, sacks Texas' Vince Young, 10, to stop Texas from scoring a touchdown in the final seconds of the first half of their game at Ohio Stadium, September 10, 2005. | Neal C. Lauron/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Despite being the lower seed, Connelly projects Texas to avenge its postseason loss to Ohio State in the first round, which would be played at The Horseshoe. Connelly did not predict who would win the Week 1 matchup in 2026.

However, Texas’ postseason run ends in the second round, as Connelly projects a Longhorns loss against a familiar foe: the Bulldogs. Texas does not play Georgia in the 2026 regular season, though they could play in a potential SEC title game.

Despite a rocky 2025, Connelly credits Texas for its 3-2 record against the final top-15 teams in ESPN’s SP+ metric. He also notes that Manning was No. 1 in QBR after Nov. 1, a promising sign that he could carry that momentum forward into 2026.

The Longhorns are not just aiming for a return to the College Football Playoff but their first national championship since 2005. Texas faces one of the toughest schedules in the country, but if it can reach the CFP, a battle-tested and potentially improved unit could be ready to make a postseason run.