Where Texas Longhorns' College Football Playoff Chances Stand Before Week 9

The Texas Longhorns looked dead in the way after suffering through an ugly two-game losing streak earlier this month but they potentially saved their season with a thrilling win over then-No. 7 Ole Miss last week.

As a result of another ranked win, the Longhorns are squarely in the mix for a College Football Playoff spot, granted they can keep stacking wins during the final five games of the year. This starts on Saturday night at home against Mississippi State.

The first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2026 season will be released on Tuesday, so it's worth taking a look at where Texas will likely fall into place before the committee reveals its first Top 25 of the year.

Texas Still Right in the Mix for the College Football Playoff

Texas Longhorns running back Raleek Brown (0) before a game against the Mississippi Rebels at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Longhorns currently have a 57.9 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.

This marks the eighth-best percentage among all FBS teams. ESPN's metrics thinks that the Longhorns have a better chance than teams like LSU, Kentucky, UCLA, Ole Miss and Tennessee.

ESPN's FPI also gives Texas a 14.9 percent chance to win out, which is what the Longhorns would need to feel very confident about earning a CFP spot.

But of course, these numbers will drastically change if the Longhorns drop another game.

Projected College Football Playoff Bracket

The Longhorns have been popping up in many different CFP bracket projections after beating Ole Miss last week.

Barring some good fortune along with running the table the rest of the season and winning the SEC Championship, Texas will almost certainy be playing on the road if its able to make the CFP.

In a recent bracket projection from On3, the Longhorns earn the No. 11 seed and would face No. 6 Utah on the road in the first round.

NEW: College Football Playoff Bracketology via @AndyStaples🏆

Do you agree?🤔https://t.co/ol5dkTnN2j pic.twitter.com/VXftx57iVH
— On3 (@On3) October 25, 2026

Though the Longhorns have shown a wide-range of potential results in 2026, this potential path in the bracket would benefit Texas.

Going on the road to Utah will be no easy task but it might beat having to face Kentucky or BYU, both of which have homefield in the first round in this particular bracket.

Additionally, facing an Indiana team in the quarterfinals that has had notable issues on offense could be an advantage for the Texas defense.

Overall, the Longhorns will be hoping to avoid teams like Miami and Georgia until at least the CFP Semifinals.

Why Texas Could Still Get in With 3 Losses

The SEC has become a moshpit this season. As a result, the Longhorns could still have a chance at an at-large bid with three losses after barely coming up short with a 9-3 record last year.

The Longhorns have the kind of quality wins that would make their potential three-loss record stand out among other teams with the same number of losses. Wins over Ohio Stae, Tennessee and Ole Miss -- along with potentially victories over LSU or Missouri -- would be hard for the committee to ignore.

But of course, Texas would need things outside of its control to fall into place.

For starters, the Longhorns would need teams like BYU, Tennessee, LSU to also finish with three losses so that their resumes can directly be compared.

They won't necessarily need every CFP bubble team to have three losses; Texas Tech could finish the year with a 10-2 record and there simply would not an argument for the Red Raiders to be in over a 9-3 Texas.

There's so much football left to be played, so wrapping our heads around all of the different hypotheticals can be nauseating.

But in the final year of the 12-team playoff, there's a real chance a three-loss team could make it. Texas might just have the best shot at doing so if it comes to that.

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