Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Preview: What the Stats Say

More than not, season openers for college football powerhouses come against less notable teams. Starting the season 1-0 is always a welcome sight, and it serves as the first chance for new starting lineups and rotations to get a hang of things in-game before heading into more competitive meetings.

For example, last season, Texas began its season at home against Colorado State and Ohio State against Akron. Both the Longhorns and Buckeyes scored 52 points in Week 1, winning by a combined 98 points.

However, these two Power 4 teams are taking a different approach in 2025. Neither Steve Sarkisian nor Ryan Day have lost a season opener during their time as head coach at their respective schools -- one of them will no longer have that streak after Aug. 30.

At this point in time, the Week 1 game feels almost like a toss-up, with a pleathora of variables limiting the ability to give one side an advantage over the other. Both teams lost a lot of their key starters on both sides of the ball from a year ago, reloading their rosters with 11 transfer commits and top four recruiting classes.

In a June 3 article, writer Neil Paine discusses ESPN's Football Power Index, which estimates a team's strength on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes. The predictive rating system projects the Longhorns and Buckeyes both at 10.4 wins, the most out of the top 20 teams listed by their national championship odds.

Having the highest FPI rating, Texas sits at first in playoff and championship chances, with Ohio State at third behind the Georgia Bulldogs. While Texas may have a slight edge in terms of predictive metrics to start the season, Ohio State will be the home team when they face off. In the last three seasons, the Buckeyes are 21-2 at The Horseshoe, only losing to the Michigan Wolverines.

Both the Longhorns and Buckeyes get their identities from stifling opponents with their defenses, and that should continue despite valuable pieces moving to the NFL. Last season, Ohio State gave up the least points and yards per game to opposing offenses and Texas the third least in both categories. The combination of this defensive pressure and inexperienced signal callers foreshadows that the Aug. 30 game may be slow on the scoreboard.

The interconference matchup at Ohio Stadium is being considered not only the best of Week 1 but arguably of the whole season. For a game of this much expectation to come so early on is pretty unheard of. Adding in the growing rivalry of the Southeastern and Big Ten Conferences, college football's two best overall conferences, makes the Texas-Ohio State home-and-home series over the next two years even more attention-grabbing.

Last season, the Big Ten and SEC were matched up ten times, four games in the regular season and six in the postseason. Big Ten teams beat SEC teams in six out of the ten matchups, but five of the wins came in the postseason and only one in the regular season. Texas contributed both a win (against Michigan in Week 2) and a loss (against Ohio State in the national semifinal).

Texas versus Ohio State is one of three regular season games between the conferences this season, with postseason matchups likely looming. Whether the SEC can repeat regular season success against the Big Ten, but this time carry it into the College Football Playoff, will start with Texas and potentially end with the Longhorns too.