First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread For College Football Playoff Round 2

Iain MacMillan | 2 Hours Ago

College football picks against the spread for Round 2 of the College Football Playoff. / Sports Illustrated

After a long college football season and a tough race to 40 correct spread picks, we're approaching the end of the competition. After a strong 4-0 performance in the opening round of the College Football Playoff, Pat Forde is just one correct pick away from winning this season's contest.

A 1-3 record in the second round would be enough to hand Forde the win. MacMillan will need him to go 0-4 to extend this into the national semifinals.

Let's take a look at their picks for this week's four playoff games.

All odds are via BetMGM Sportsbook

Pat's College Football Playoff Round 2 Picks

Ohio State -9.5 vs. Miami

The Buckeyes are allowing a nation-leading 3.94 yards per play and should pose a lot of problems for Carson Beck. He was reduced to a high-priced handoff specialist against Texas A&M as the Hurricanes became one-dimensional, throwing for just 103 yards. There won’t be a ton of points in this game, and very few of them figure to be scored by Miami.

Texas Tech +2.5 vs. Oregon

Underestimate the Red Raiders at your peril. They have an elite defense and an offense that has a chance to make some plays against a Ducks defensive unit that gave up plenty of them against James Madison. The first one to 20 might win this one.

Indiana -6.5 vs. Alabama

All credit to the Crimson Tide for their rally in Norman, but those who only look at laundry and tradition need to understand that this is a much tougher matchup. Oklahoma gifted Alabama 10 points with a pick six and a dropped punt snap to let it back in the game, and missed two field goals. The Hoosiers have been far more buttoned up than that all season and have no glaring weaknesses. The fact that this line dropped below a touchdown makes it a no-brainer pick.

Georgia -6.5 vs. Ole Miss

The Rebels led the Bulldogs after three quarters between the hedges, but the fourth quarter was a mismatch. Since then, Georgia has continued to improve, especially on defense. This is a young defense that is starting to dominate like a trademark Kirby Smart unit.

Iain's College Football Playoff Round 2 Picks

Ohio State -9.5 vs. Miami

Despite losing to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship, there's a strong argument to be made that Ohio State is the best team in the country, and there are plenty of metrics to back that claim up. For example, the Buckeyes lead the nation in adjusted EPA per play, and they rank second in net success rate. Miami ranks just 11th and eighth in those two categories.

Miami has a great defense, but I don't trust the Hurricanes' offense against the elite Ohio State defense. The Hurricanes' offense ranks just 31st in the country in adjusted EPA per play. They managed to score just 10 points against Texas A&M in the first round, and now they have an even tougher defense to face this week.

I'll lay the points on Ohio State in the quarterfinals.

Oregon -2.5 vs. Texas Tech

Texas Tech's defense is one of the best in the country, and the Red Raiders can ride that defense to wins against great teams, but unfortunately for them, Oregon's defense is good enough to match them in that area. Both defenses rank in the top eight in opponent-adjusted EPA per play.

Overall, Oregon may just be the most underrated team left in the playoffs. The Ducks are third in adjusted net EPA per play. Ohio State is the only team left in contention that ranks above them in that metric. They also have a NFL-bound quarterback leading their offense, which should give them the ability to get past the stout Red Raiders defense.

Indiana -6.5 vs. Alabama

Indiana continues to be somehow be underrated, despite being undefeated and the Big Ten champions. They're fourth in net adjusted EPA per play and second in net success rate. While Alabama has the brand name, the Crimson Tide isn't the team they were in the Nick Saban era, ranking just 41st in net yards per play.

Alabama's offense is simply not effective, getting just a single first down in the first half against Oklahoma in the first round of the playoff. They're 76th in yards per play, averaging just 5.4 yards per snap, while ranking 48th in net adjusted EPA per play.

Ole Miss +6.5 vs. Georgia

Ole Miss has a path to keeping this game close and potentially pulling off the upset. Georgia ranks 51st in the country in opponent rush success rate, which means the Rebels have a chance to get the ball moving on the ground.

Georgia may also not be as good as you may think. The Bulldogs rank just 25th in the country in adjusted net EPA per play and 27th in net success rank. Ole Miss ranks 17th in adjusted net EPA, and they were able to go punch-for-punch with the Bulldogs in the regular season. Even without Lane Kiffin, I'm going to bet on Ole Miss to make this a game.

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