UCF Bubble Watch: Why The Knights Deserve To Be In March Madness
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The UCF Knights men's basketball team is on the cusp of program history.
Not since the days of Tacko Fall and BJ Taylor in 2019 have the Knights taken the court for the NCAA Tournament, but if common consensus among bracketologists is to be believed, that is all about to change.
So, here are three reasons why, even despite their late-season stumbles, the Knights deserve to be among the 68 teams vying for the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship:
1. Big Time Wins
The Knights have proven to be an upset threat both in and away from Orlando this season.
According to the NET rankings on Mar. 11, UCF racked up five quadrant one wins, which is more than Ohio State, UCLA, St. Mary's, Villanova and St. John's, all of whom are ranked higher than UCF. Those five wins are also spread out across the country, with two coming in Addition Financial Arena against Kansas and Texas Tech, two coming on the road to Texas A&M and BYU, and the last one coming on Wednesday in the Big 12 Tournament against Cincinnati on a neutral site.
The wins against the Jayhawks, Red Raiders and Cougars all also came when they were ranked in the Associated Press Top 25, tying the 2023-24 team's record for most wins against Top 25 teams in a single season.
2. Wins Above Bubble
Introduced to the NCAA Tournament selection process last season, "Wins Above Bubble" assigns a score, 0-1, based on how likely a standard bubble team, ranked No. 45 in the NET rankings, would be to win that game. That number is influenced by opponent strength and the location of the game. It is unaffected by victory margins.
Last season, North Carolina, with the 42nd-highest WAB score at 0.79, edged out West Virginia, which had the 43rd-highest score at 0.78, for an NCAA Tournament at-large spot. This lines up with a quote from Dan Gavitt, the NCAA's senior vice president of basketball, who said to CBS Sports last month that the selection of at-large teams was "probably" more correlated to a team's WAB ranking than its NET ranking.
Going into UCF's game against Arizona, it sported a 2.33 Wins Above Bubble score, which is the 36th-highest in the nation. That is higher than the likes of Iowa and St. Louis, who are both ranked in the Top 30 of the NET rankings, and Texas A&M, a team the Knights beat on the road back in November.
3. Strength of Record
While the Knights' 50th-place ranking in the NET rankings actually has them behind a team on the outside looking into the NCAA Tournament in Cincinnati, a different ranking system has them in the Top 30.
Developed by Kevin Pauga, an associate AD for Michigan State, the KPI rankings organize teams' resumes on a game-by-game basis with a formula that considers an opponent’s winning percentage, an opponent’s strength of schedule, scoring margin, pace of game, location, and opponent’s KPI ranking.
Going into Thursday's game against Arizona, the Knights ranked 28th in the KPI rankings, which is the seventh-highest in the Big 12. It has the Knights just ahead of programs like St. Louis, NC State, Clemson and VCU, and just behind the likes of Villanova, Tennessee and Louisville.
According to the rankings, UCF's biggest win was against BYU on Feb. 24, while its worst loss was the following game against Baylor on Feb. 28.
The Knights officially learn their NCAA Tournament fate on Sunday night at 6 p.m. on CBS.
Catch up on more UCF news below:
UCF Basketball Keeps March Madness Hopes Alive With Overtime Victory
Bryson Turner is a sports journalist who covers UCF Athletics. Turner has contributed to the Black and Gold Banneret, the home for UCF Athletics on SB Nation. He has called the Orlando area home since the age of 8 and received his bachelor's and master's degrees from UCF.
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