Should a Two-Loss Alabama Reach the CFB Playoffs Over Notre Dame, Oregon and Cincinnati?
The College Football Playoffs (CFP) will be difficult to project each and every year, and this season provides fans and voters with a truly unique scenario. What happens if the Georgia Bulldogs win against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Title Game?
Assuming Alabama wins its final two regular season games, that scenario means Alabama would have two losses on their record, and no team has ever made the CFP with more than one loss.
This situation could very well play out, especially if teams like Notre Dame and Oregon win out and finish 11-1 and 12-1 respectively, as well as Cincinnati going undefeated at 13-0.
This is the age-old argument about a team's final record versus the eye test. It’s about as easy going as Republicans and Democrats having a friendly discussion about border reform and/or whether the COVID-19 vaccine should be taken by everyone.
All sarcasm aside regarding politics, Alabama is arguably the second most talented team, and almost assuredly within the three most talented teams in the country, with Georgia and Ohio State being the other two.
So, should Alabama be in the CFP if it does in fact lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game but wins out from this point forward leading into that game against Georgia? Here’s a look at Alabama’s schedule as compared to Notre Dame, Oregon and Cincinnati.
The number next to the team name is representative of the Jeff Sagrin Strength of Schedule Rankings as of Tuesday morning, Nov. 16, 2021.
Alabama (44)
Sep. 4 (Neutral site -- Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta) Miami - Won 44-13
Sep. 11 Mercer (FCS) - Won 48-14
Sep. 18 at Florida - Won 31-29
Sep. 25 Southern Miss - Won 63-14
Oct. 2 Ole Miss - Won 42-21
Oct. 9 at Texas A&M - Lost 41-38
Oct. 16 at Mississippi State - Won 49-9
Oct. 23 Tennessee - Won 52-24
Nov. 6 LSU - Won 20-14
Nov. 13 New Mexico State - Won 59-3
Alabama’s Upcoming Games
Nov. 20 Arkansas
Nov. 27 at Auburn
Dec. 4 (Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta) SEC Championship Game, versus Georgia
Notre Dame (21)
Sunday, Sep. 5 at Florida State - Won 41-38 (overtime)
Sep. 11 Toledo - Won 32-29
Sep. 18 Purdue - Won 27-13
Sep. 25 (Soldier Field, Chicago) Wisconsin - Won 41-13
Oct. 2 Cincinnati - Lost 24-13
Oct. 9 at Virginia Tech - Won 32-29
Oct. 23 Southern California - Won 31-16
Oct. 30 North Carolina - Won 44-34
Nov. 6 Navy - Won 34-6
Nov. 13 at Virginia - Won 28-3
Notre Dame’s Upcoming Games
Nov. 20 Georgia Tech
Nov. 27 at Stanford
Even with an elite talent like Kyle Hamilton on its roster, will not playing in a conference championship game hurt Notre Dame's chances of reaching the CFP?
Nikos Frazier / Journal & Courier via Imagn Content Services, LLC
Oregon (63)
Sep. 4 Fresno State - Won 31-24
Sep. 11 at Ohio State - Won 35-28
Sep. 18 Stony Brook (FCS) - Won 48-7
Sep. 25 Arizona - Won 41-19
Oct. 2 at Stanford - Lost 31-24 (overtime)
Friday, Oct. 15 California - Won 24-17
Oct. 23 at UCLA - Won 34-31
Oct. 30 Colorado - Won 52-29
Nov. 6 at Washington - Won 26-16
Nov. 13 Washington State - Won 38-24
Oregon’s Upcoming Games
Nov. 20 at Utah
Nov. 27 Oregon State
Dec. 4 (Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas)
Cincinnati (100)
Sep. 4 Miami of Ohio - Won 49-14
Sep. 11 Murray State (FCS) - Won 42-7
Sep. 18 @ Indiana - Won 38-24
Oct. 2 at Notre Dame - Won 24-13
Oct. 9 Temple - Won 52-3
Oct. 16 UCF - Won 56-21
Oct. 23 at Navy - Won 27-20
Oct. 30 at Tulane - Won 31-12
Nov. 6 Tulsa - Won 28-20
Nov. 13 at USF - Won 45-28
Cincinnati’s Upcoming Games
Nov. 20 SMU
Nov. 27 at East Carolina
Dec. 4 American Athletic Conference Championship Game
Strength of Schedule Matters
As Alabama finishes out the 2021 slate, games versus Arkansas (7-3) and Auburn (6-4) will improve their current strength of schedule. Notre Dame, meanwhile, will take a hit with hapless Georgia Tech (3-7) and Stanford (3-7) remaining and no conference championship game. Oregon’s remaining games should help with Utah (7-3) and Oregon State (6-4), plus the Pac 12 Title Game. Cincinnati’s situation might be the most unique from the group.
The Bearcats will need to win big in their remaining games to help make up for a weak regular season schedule thus far. To make the CFP, SMU (8-2) will be an opportunity for Cincinnati to impress voters against a really good offensive team, but East Carolina (6-4) likely needs to be a blowout, and they possibly need a blowout with the American Athletic Conference Championship Game as well.
The Eye Test Versus Results
Which will win out? This situation will continue to develop. Final records certainly matter, as evidenced by the history of the CFP selections since it began in 2014. With the eye test also being very important, i.e. do any of these four teams dominate their final regular season and/or championship game opponents, and if so, how blatant will it be and by what margin of victory?
There will be a lot of second guessing if Alabama does not reach the CFP despite two losses, but there’s also plenty of evidence to support any of Notre Dame, Oregon or Cincinnti getting into the CFP if all of those teams win out.
Which teams do you support making the CFP under this scenario?
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