Florida Visits Missouri as Dan Mullen’s Seat Burns Hotter than Ever

There might only be one intriguing matchup in the SEC this weekend, but it presents astronomically high implications for the future of one of the two programs.

Author:
Jason Hamby
Publish date:
Nov 19, 2021 2:08 PM EST

With just two weeks left in the regular season, the majority of SEC teams are playing their cupcake games. Six of the SEC schools are hosting far inferior opponents that they should all win by 40-plus points, with Georgia hosting Charleston Southern being just one example.

For those six, it’s an easy win that provides them the chance to get some players healthy and ready for rivalry games Thanksgiving weekend.The Florida Gators do not have that luxury.

Florida 5-5 (2-5 SEC) will travel to play the Missouri Tigers 5-5 (2-4 SEC) at 4 p.m. this Saturday. Few would’ve believed that Missouri would be ahead of Florida in the SEC standings after 10 weeks of football. Some may have been even more surprised to learn that Florida Head Coach Dan Mullen would still have a job if that were the case.

The Gators made the obvious decision to fire Defensive Coordinator Todd Grantham after losing to South Carolina 40-17 two weeks ago. But the next week, in what was supposed to be a cupcake matchup of their own, they found themselves losing to the FCS-level Samford Bulldogs 42-35 at halftime.

Although the Gators would pull it together and win the game, the performance was inexcusable, leaving the flames under Coach Mullen’s seat hotter and higher than ever.

It’s very possible that these last two remaining games for Florida, against Missouri and rival Florida State, will help determine Mullen’s fate come season’s end. He simply can’t afford another loss.

Florida has way too much talent to even be 5-5 at this point, especially with the expectations as high as they were. Losing to Alabama and Georgia is one thing, especially with a totally different offense from last year, but the Gators failed to show up the last two weeks, getting blown out by a now 5-5 South Carolina team in a rebuilding year, and barely squeaking by Samford.

Keep in mind, Samford was 3-5 heading into its game against Florida, and that’s an FCS schedule it was playing.

The Gators are 1-3 on the road this season, with the lone win coming against a USF team that’s in total rebuild mode and sits with a 2-8 overall record.

Florida will travel to Columbia this Saturday and take on a Missouri team that just beat South Carolina last week 31-28. Both teams feature offenses with the ability to score a lot of points paired with equally bad defenses that give up a lot of points, too.

Missouri gives up 35.9 points per game, worst in the SEC, and that statistic ranks them No. 118 nationally. So, the Gators will certainly be able to put up points against Missouri. The question is, as it has been all season, about the Gators’ defense.

The Florida defense has allowed 44 points a game over their last 4 contests. For the season, the Gators allowed 27.4 points per contest. That’s an issue because when Missouri’s offense is right, it can put up points in a hurry.

Missouri starting quarterback Connor Bazelak is a gunslinger who likes to take shots down the field. That also has its downside though, and he’s rather wild with the football, throwing 10 interceptions to go along with his 15 touchdowns.

The key for Missouri offensively will be for Bazelak to take care of the ball and for running back Tyler Badie to have a repeat performance of last week, when he ran for 209 yards and a touchdown on 34 attempts against the Gamecocks.

Connor Bazelak and Tyler Badie are a good one-two punch for Missouri
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Badie is Missouri’s workhorse. He’s averaging 20 attempts per game this season. If he can run for six yards a pop like he did last week, this game will surpass 80 total points, easily.

Offensively for Florida, they have one of the most confusing situations in all of college football. Florida uses a committee at running back, not including Jones who is their leading rusher. Malik Davis (5.0 yards per carry on 71 rushes), Nay’quan Wright (4.7 yards per carry on 61 attempts) and Dameon Pierce (6.6 yards per carry on 68 attempts) make up its backfield. The fact that these three running backs split carries almost identically doesn’t make sense.

Pierce, who has by far the best average of the three, was Pro Football Focus’s top ranking running back in all of college football through 10 games this season. Yet, Pierce is yet to have double-digit carries in any game this year.

Pierce has scored 10 rushing touchdowns on those 68 rushing attempts and added 3 receiving touchdowns on 18 catches. There has to be another factor at play as to why this guy isn’t being given 20 touches a game. He scores a touchdown roughly every six times he touches the football. His counterparts, Davis and Wright, have eight touchdowns combined on the season.

For Florida to win, they have to give Pierce the ball more often. Outside of that, quarterback Emory Jones has to take care of the ball. Jones, like Bazelak, has also thrown 10 interceptions this year. Jones does have three more passing touchdowns than Bazelak, and has also added four rushing touchdowns, but ball security will be of utmost importance for him too.

Prediction

Neither one of these teams will be able to stop the other. This game will come down to the turnover battle. Bazelak will throw a costly interception that gives Florida’s offense the opportunity to seal the game and keep Mullen for at least one more week.

Florida 48 Missouri 38