Analyzing the Pac-12's position in potential conference realignment
Over a decade after the last game of musical chairs ended, the Power Five conferences could once again get shuffled up.
Multiple reports surfaced Wednesday regarding Texas and Oklahoma's status in the Big 12, which is not as secure as it was recently believed to be. The two universities reportedly reached out to the SEC about a possible change of scenery, sending social media and other college athletic circles into a frenzy. Both Texas and Oklahoma's athletic departments denied to publicly comment on the reports, but additional details have come out insinuating both schools had been discussing leaving the Big 12 for several months.
A lot would have to happen for the mutiny to come to fruition, including 11 of the 14 current SEC schools agreeing to formally invite the Longhorns and Sooners. Media deals complicate the timeline as well, so even if the two powerhouses of the Southwest were able to pull it off, it probably wouldn't happen overnight.
Still, the news got people talking, one of which was new Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff.
Kliavkoff's choice of words was right on the nose – whatever happens next will certainly be interesting.
Oklahoma may be trying to gain as much media leverage as Texas – which has the Longhorn Network and its national brand to hang over the Big 12 – before the conference's rights agreement expires in 2025. Or if the realignment did happen, the SEC would expand to 16 teams and the Big 12 would be left with eight, down two of its most consistent moneymakers, no less.
Left to fend for themselves would be Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia, the majority of which boast better men's basketball programs than football teams. Maybe those schools stick it out in a smaller conference and retain Power Five status in men's basketball, all while accepting relegation to a Group of Five status on the gridiron.
That isn't to say those eight schools are bad at football, far from it actually. They each hold value as brands and programs and it's not like they'd suddenly disappear into thin air.
Still, it is hard to envision those eight teams standing on their own as a football conference. None of them have claimed a national title since 1945 and their average annual finish in 247Sports' recruiting rankings over the past three years is 49th, with only one top-25 finish. If those eight teams want to be part of a power football conference, they'd need to find a new home or drastically make over their own.
One solution to that problem is seeking out replacement teams to stay afloat. The other is to disband entirely.
That's where the Pac-12 comes in.
If that second scenario were ever to come to fruition, there would be a few free agent schools for the Pac-12 to target as 13th, 14th or 15th members. Geography would almost certainly bar West Virginia from joining, and the Pac-12's aversion to dealing with religious schools such as BYU in the past makes it unlikely that TCU or Baylor join either.
The remaining five schools don't exactly scream Pac-12, but that kind of conference identity and pride may wind up getting sacrificed in favor of greater financial gains. UCLA and Kansas playing in basketball once or twice every year would be a big win for broadcasters and sponsors alike, and adding Oregon into Oklahoma State's yearly football schedule would turn heads as well.
The other option, from the Pac-12's perspective, is to sit this one out entirely. The Big Ten, ACC and SEC would fight over the last remnants of the Big 12 and the Pac-12 could rest easy knowing there's one fewer power conference to compete with. That path of least resistance would seemingly make it easier for the Pac-12 to secure a top seed in the College Football Playoff, whatever its expansion winds up looking like.
Not participating in the conference realignment game might backfire, however. The Pac-12 could be accused of playing it too safe, or even worse, fall out of national discussion entirely as a result.
Another trickle-down effect of Texas and Oklahoma moving to the SEC could be seen on the football recruiting trail. The Longhorns and Sooners would surely divert additional resources to recruiting in Florida, Georgia and other states in the Southeast, which could limit them from poaching as many West Coast kids as they are today. On the other hand, that could lead to schools like Tennessee, Alabama and Auburn losing a bit of a grip on regional recruiting and turning to Southern California to make up the difference.
If Texas Tech or Iowa State join the Pac-12, UCLA might be able to establish more of a recruiting base in the Southwest and Midwest.
This is all mostly hypothetical at this point, but there is some precedent to the Pac-12 getting involved in this kind of drama. Texas was famously on the verge of joining the Pac-12 back in 2010, along with most of the Big 12 South. It didn't come to fruition, but it still resulted in Colorado joining the Conference of Champions and Texas A&M leaving for the SEC.
This time around, maybe it's the Buffaloes who could bail on the Pac-12 in favor of a return to a new-look Big 12. Or maybe the Pac-12 could become the Pac-16 like it nearly did over a decade ago. Maybe UCLA and USC's recruiting prowess in Southern California skyrockets, or maybe it takes a major hit.
Almost nothing is for certain when conference realignment is at stake, and the dominoes that fall after an inciting incident such as this Texas-Oklahoma news could go in any number of directions. Yahoo Sports' Pete Thamel reported the two schools will not be on the Big 12 call Thursday night and that the conference members will discuss their future and what contingencies might need to be in place moving forward.
One thing is for sure, though – no conference shakeups exist in a vacuum. Even if the Pac-12 sticks with the same dozen teams for the foreseeable future, UCLA and its conference rivals could feel the shockwaves regardless.
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