Final Thoughts and Score Prediction for UNC vs. Cal

BERKELEY, CA. - North Carolina (2-3, 0-1 ACC) looks to earn its first win over a Power Four opponent since last November when it takes on California (4-2, 1-1 ACC) in Berkeley at 10:30 ET. Here are the staff picks for tonight's game.

Grant Chachere: Cal 35-14

Sep 6, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; California Golden Bears head coach Justin Wilcox (left) and general manager Ron Rivera (right) talk after defeating the Texas Southern Tigers at California Memorial Stadium. | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Nothing will convince me that UNC can win this game.

For starters, UNC has allowed 302 yards per game against Power Four opponents this season, and it doesn’t help that all three games ended in losses. Cal boasts one of the best young quarterbacks in college football, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, and several big-time targets, including wide receiver Trond Grizzell and tight end Mason Mini. Adding to the mix, Thaddeus Dixon, UNC’s top cover corner, is out for tonight’s game.

The offense is one of the worst in the country, ranking 131st out of 134 FBS teams. Combine that with a Cal defense that ranks in the top half of several important defensive categories, and things are not looking good for the Tar Heels. I have Cal winning by at least three touchdowns.

Jeremiah Artacho: 27-7 Cal

Head Coach Bill Belichick; Sept. 13, 2025 | Jackson McCurdy, North Carolina Tar Heels On SI

UNC, yet again, will fall for another week. The Bears quarterback, freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, will be too much for the Tar Heels to handle, as it has struggled already this season against guys like Josh Hoover, Tayven Jackson and Cade Klubnik.

The defense will have a hard time trying to contain the Bears' offense, as running back Kendrick Raphael, who has 414 rushing yards on the season through six games, has been a force to be reckoned with — and North Carolina's tackling struggles continue to be evident — just go back to its last outing against Clemson on October 4. Head coach Bill Belichick and the Tar Heels will lose on the West Coast, 27-7 — moving their record to 2-4 on the season.

Sienna Ayes: 38-17 Cal

Head Coach Bill Belichick; Sept. 13, 2025 | Jackson McCurdy, North Carolina Tar Heels On SI

Tomorrow’s UNC vs. Cal matchup has the feel of a team spiraling toward rock bottom. Since Bill Belichick took over as UNC’s head coach, the Tar Heels have looked like a group trapped between two identities- one trying to mirror Belichick’s rigid, old-school discipline, and another still clinging to the loose, fast-paced energy that once defined them. The result? Chaos.

The defense looks confused, the offense disconnected, and there’s no sense of unity on the sideline. Players seem frustrated, the energy’s flat, and the locker room tension is impossible to miss. Cal, on the other hand, looks cohesive and opportunistic- exactly what UNC used to be. Unless something dramatic shifts overnight, expect another disappointing performance. Prediction: Cal 38, UNC 17- a blowout that exposes just how far the Heels have fallen under Belichick’s shadow.

Corey Davis: 28-16 Cal

UNC — Oct 4, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; California Golden Bears quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (3) scrambles away from pressure by Duke Blue Devils defensive end Wesley Williams (97) during the second quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

Cal comes into this matchup favored by roughly 9–10 points, and for good reason. The Golden Bears have been steady defensively, allowing just over 22 points per game, and their run defense has been particularly consistent.

Freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has shown he can stretch the field vertically, giving Cal an ability to produce explosive plays even when the offense isn’t perfectly efficient.
UNC, on the other hand, has struggled to find rhythm under Bill Belichick’s new system and roster. The Tar Heels rank near the bottom of the ACC in passing yards and first downs, and turnovers have ruined their offensive reputation.

While the bye week was supposed to offer some improvement, this simply remains a young team adjusting to a different style. If UNC can’t push drives or win on third down, Cal’s balanced approach should take over in the second half, if it does not become clear in the first. We can probably expect the Tar Heels to keep it close in the first half, and lose the fight in the second. Final score prediction: Cal 28, UNC 16.

Please make sure you follow us today on our Facebook page when you click right HERE!

Please follow us on X when you click right HERE!