UNC Grips Spot in Bracketology Entering Weekend

The last seven days have been a rollercoaster for the North Carolina Tar Heels, who stormed back from 13 down against the Duke Blue Devils last weekend in a 71-68 win at the Dean E. Smith Center. North Carolina followed that up by losing to the Miami Hurricanes 75-66 in a game where the Tar Heels appeared emotionally and physically spent after investing all of their resources against Duke.

Falling to the Hurricanes snapped a five-game winning streak, but that was not the worst news coming out of that game. On Thursday, the university announced that star freshman Caleb Wilson had suffered a fractured hand, which was initially thought to be a sprained wrist.

Feb 7, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Caleb Wilson (8) on the court in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

"University of North Carolina freshman Caleb Wilson is out with a fracture in his left hand, an injury he suffered in the first half of Tuesday's game at Miami," the university reported. "X-rays taken during the game were negative, and he returned to play in the second half vs. the Hurricanes, but additional imaging done in Chapel Hill revealed the fracture. The evaluation process is ongoing to determine the timetable for Wilson's return."

On Friday, ESPN's Bracketologist Joe Lunardi updated his bracket tournaments in his Bracketology exercise, which featured several changes to the field. Where did the Tar Heels slide into after this past week's results heading into Saturday's slate of games.

North Carolina Falls

Nov 7, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Caleb Wilson (8) shoots as Kansas Jayhawks forward Flory Bidunga (40) and guard Melvin Council Jr. (14) and guard Darryn Peterson (22) defend in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

After moving up all the way to a four seed in last week's projections, the Tar Heels are listed as a six seed in Lunardi's assessment on Friday. In this version, North Carolina's path is much more intimidating, as the top three seeds consist of Duke (1), Illinois (2), and Kansas (3). Because the Tar Heels are the six seed, they would play the Jayhawks in the second round, assuming all the favorites win.

Both teams played each other in early November, and North Carolina was victorious, defeating Kansas 87-74 behind Wilson's 24 points, seven rebounds, four assists, and four steals while shooting 9-of-11 from the field.

However, Kansas have won eight straight games heading into Saturday's matchup agianst Iowa State, which was the team the Jayhawks started their win streak with. Additionall Darryn Peterson has been in and out of the lineup, which is what makes Kansas' potential exponentially high, as we can only imagine how good this team will be when fully healthy.

Is This Fall Validated?

Unfortunately, this ranking makes a ton of sense, considering that Wilson could miss the rest of the regular season, and if that is the case, North Carolina could slide even farther. As mentioned, sliding two seed lines down is not based on the loss against Miami. This all revolves around Wilson's injury and timetable for return.

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