Why UNC Fans Should Worry About Missing Tournament

The North Carolina Tar Heels may be entering a downward spiral, and it could get ugly very soon. UNC is four games into ACC play and currently sits in the middle of the conference with a 2-2 record.

Last season, the Tar Heels went 13-7 in ACC play and earned an 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The question now is whether this year’s team is capable of finishing over .500 the rest of the season when it has yet to face the ACC’s true powerhouses.

Let’s take a closer look to determine whether UNC fans should be worried about postseason play.

Bracketology

Current Bracketology has the Tar Heels projected as a No. 7 seed. Unfortunately for UNC, the outlook is far from encouraging, and things could easily get worse as the season progresses. The Tar Heels have played only one team currently above .500 in conference play—Stanford—and allowed 95 points in that loss.

First foray into bracketology 👇

Model developed to form a unifying "Selection Score"(Which can be found for each team on my website: https://t.co/VLMkhDLtCb), that reflects prior committee decision-making based on predictive and resume metrics for each team pic.twitter.com/FQ80XeElvN
— Colin Hanley (@Colin_Hanley1) January 13, 2026

UNC still must play Duke twice, along with Clemson, Louisville, Virginia and Miami, all of which are among the ACC’s top teams. If the Tar Heels are struggling to close out games against Wake Forest and cannot beat the Cardinal or SMU, matchups against the conference’s elite could prove disastrous.

The timing of those games is also unfavorable for UNC, as they are all scheduled within the final four games of the season. While that stretch provides an opportunity for the Tar Heels to regain momentum, it also raises the possibility of ending the season on a sour note.

Consistency vs Volatility for CBB’s top 100 teams (All via @EvanMiya 🫡)

Think it’s a fantastic metric to look at for a March perspective - have to be consistently great for 6 games to win a natty but to make a 2nd weekend run, can be a little frisky pic.twitter.com/jhxtuxtMti
— Ryan Hammer🔨 (@ryanhammer09) January 15, 2026

Bad News

This metric may ultimately define UNC’s season and highlight its inconsistency. At the moment, most indicators are trending in the wrong direction. If the struggles continue, the program could face tough questions once the season ends.

Even if the Tar Heels manage to sneak into the NCAA Tournament but suffer a first-round exit, would that be much different than missing the tournament entirely for a program of UNC’s stature? Head coach Hubert Davis has advanced past the first round just once in the past three seasons.

Things could not have gone better for Davis in his first year in Chapel Hill, when he led the Tar Heels to the national championship game. That run, however, came nearly four years ago. In the sports world—especially at a school like UNC—four years can feel like a lifetime.

A lot has changed since then, and Davis is beginning to feel the pressure. If the Tar Heels do not experience a dramatic midseason turnaround, uncomfortable conversations may be unavoidable in Chapel Hill.

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