3 Factors That Will Decide UNC's 2026 Success Level

With Matt Able announcing his decision to withdraw from the 2026 NBA Draft and officially play for the North Carolina Tar Heels next season, the cards are set for head coach Michael Malone.

What began as a daunting offseason has provided a glimpse of hope for Tar Heel fans, as Malone and his staff have assembled one of the most tantalizing rosters in the country. North Carolina has been eliminated in the first round of the NCAA tournament in each of the last two seasons, and that will be a polarizing topic throughout the entire 2026 season. With all of that in mind, here are three factors that will determine the Tar Heels' level of success next season.

Coaching

Mar 14, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone in the second quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Last season, it was apparent that, more often than not, North Carolina was outmatched in the coaching realm, with Hubert Davis at the helm. Hiring Malone is a clear upgrade at the position, and if the Tar Heels want to reach their potential, it must start with the longtime NBA head coach.

Malone has already exceeded expectations in the recruiting portion of the job, which was a major question mark in Malone's transition from the NBA to college. The 54-year-old head coach is not going to bend his process and will transfer his schematics and strategies to Chapel Hill. Those practices should remain viable at the college level, and if they do, North Carolina will have a leg up on the majority of its opponents purely from a coaching perspective.

Roster Versatility

Jan 21, 2026; Syracuse, New York, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies guard Neoklis Avdalas (17) dribbles up the court during the first half against the Syracuse Orange at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-Imagn Images | Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

It's safe to say Malone prioritized players who could operate in multiple roles, allowing him to deploy several rotational combinations. The Tar Heels will not be as dependent on one or two players as they were last season, with Henri Veesaar and Caleb Wilson as the clear catalysts on both ends of the floor.

North Carolina may not have a lottery pick on this roster, but I would argue this team is better equipped to make a deep run in the tournament because it can change its shape based on the opponent. The Tar Heels' backcourt, consisting of Neoklis Avdalas, Terrence Brown, and Able, could cause a multitude of issues for their opponents.

Mar 10, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Utah Utes guard Terrence Brown (2) drives around Cincinnati Bearcats guard Day Day Thomas (1) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Additionally, Maximo Adams, Kevin Thomas, and Jarin Stevenson are all capable of defending multiple positions and should contribute to the scoring department, playing off of the aforementioned guards. Overall, the Tar Heels are a potential buzzsaw, with no one way to marginalize their operation.

Frontcourt Rotation

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Jarin Stevenson (15) celebrates after a play against the VCU Rams in the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

North Carolina's current frontcourt rotation does not measure up to last season's, with Veesaar, Wilson, and Zayden High. That being said, the Tar Heels' frontcourt, specifically the center position, is completely revamped, with Sayon Keita and Cade Bennerman as the only two options in that department. North Carolina is also expected to add Greek center Alexandros Samodurov, who could officially announce his decision to take his talents to Chapel Hill in the coming days.

Nevertheless, Keita, who will arrive from Barcelona at some point this offseason, projects to be the Tar Heels' starting center. The 7-foot center produced an elite outing in the NextGen EuroLeague Tournament last week, recording a 14-point, 10-rebound, and seven-block performance in an opening round victory. The 18-year-old overseas prospect will be a key cog in North Carolina's operation next season, but he is still a raw athlete who needs to refine his game in multiple areas.

Mar 27, 2024; Los Angeles, CA, USA; The North Carolina Tar Heels logo on the video board during practice prior to NCAA Tournament at West Regional at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Nevertheless, the Tar Heels' frontcourt has immense upside, but the lack of experience could be troubling in the early months of the season.

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