UNC Basketball: Best and Worst-Case Scenarios for NC State Transfer Matt Able

This has been one of the hectic offseasons in recent memory for the North Carolina Tar Heels' basketball program.

Following a second consecutive first-round exit in the NCAA tournament, it was obvious that North Carolina needed to recalibrate its approach. That's exactly what it did, firing Hubert Davis and expanding its head coach search beyond the perimeter of Chapel Hill. Throughout its history, the Tar Heels have been reluctant to hire any coach without any ties to the program.

That changed this offseason, as North Carolina's top targets resided outside Chapel Hill. Ultimately, the Tar Heels hired Michael Malone, who recently coached the Denver Nuggets to an NBA championship in 2023. With no prior collegiate coaching experience, Malone's ability to recruit was heavily questioned. However, he quickly quieted those doubts, landing several prospects in the transfer portal.

One of those acquisitions was North Carolina State transfer Matt Able, who showcased his skill set at the NBA scouting combine last month. With that being said, here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for Able in 2026 as a Tar Heel.

Best-Case Scenario

Mar 11, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Matt Able (3) brings the ball up the court in the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Able was an unknown commodity when he announced his decision to commit to North Carolina. In 2025, under Will Wade, the 6-foot-6, 211-pound guard featured in only 21.9 minutes off the bench, averaging 8.8 points and 3.4 rebounds per game while shooting 41.6 percent from the field and 35.5 percent from three-point range.

While the statistical output appears mediocre on the surface, Able demonstrated a skill set that could lead to elite production in an expanded role and improved system. At the scouting combine, Able illustrated how his game could translate at the next level, and simultaneously unlocked another door for how Malone could utilize the soon-to-be sophomore guard.

Feb 28, 2026; South Bend, Indiana, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Matt Able (3) drives past Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard Logan Imes (2) during the second half at Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

If everything aligns perfectly, Able's ceiling in North Carolina is immensely high. Best-case scenario, the North Carolina State transfer develops into a multi-faceted scorer who needs 10-12 shots to average 16-17 points per game.

Worst-Case Scenario

Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack head coach Will Wade with guard Matt Able (3) in the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

I'm a firm believer that Able will excel under Malone's tutelage and become one of the best players in the ACC. However, there are no guarantees in life. Worst-case scenario, Able is a moderate role player and struggles to generate consistent offense.

Able projects to operate off the ball in a large percentage of North Carolina's offensive sets, which means he will be running off screens and utilizing catch-and-shoot situations to generate scoring production.

Mar 11, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Matt Able (3) drives against Pittsburgh Panthers guard Barry Dunning Jr. (22) during the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

If Able is incapable of consistently knocking down shots along the perimeter, his effectiveness in this offense will be capped, and the Tar Heels will suffer from that. Again, I don't expect this to happen, but in the worst-case scenario, the potential first-round pick in the 2027 NBA draft struggles and is marginalized as an offensive threat, culminating in being benched in favor of Maximo Adams.

Add us as a preferred source on Google