Evaluating What Success Means for UNC in 2026

This offseason for the North Carolina Tar Heels has featured twists and turns at every corner, and Michael Malone's hiring less than 24 hours before the transfer portal opened was an indicator of what was to come in the weeks that followed.

Hiring Malone was objectively the best option on the market, and the Tar Heels' exploration outside the program's "family" was telling of the level of urgency heading into next season. With the 54-year-old longtime head coach taking over in Chapel Hill, the expectations for 2026 are much higher than they have been over the last five years.

Is This Roster Good Enough To Compete?

Mar 3, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Jarin Stevenson (15) drives through Clemson Tigers guard Ace Buckner (21) during the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kinser-Imagn Images | Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

North Carolina lost the majority of their rotation from last season, with Jarin Stevenson, Jaydon Young, and Isaiah Denis being the only returning players. Stevenson is the only one who logged legitimate minutes, as Young and Denis were just bench depth.

That being said, the Tar Heels have assembled a compelling collection of talent over the last month, constructing a roster littered with diverse skill sets. While last season's roster featured a lottery pick (Caleb Wilson) and a star center who underachieved at his last opportunity (Henri Veesaar), this year's team could be more balanced.

Mar 10, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Utah Utes guard Terrence Brown (2) drives around Cincinnati Bearcats guard Day Day Thomas (1) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Acquiring Terrence Brown and Neoklis Avdalas provides two legitimate scorers in the backcourt, who can generate points at all three levels. Then, there is Matt Able, who could develop into a legitimate all-around player in Malone's system. Compared to last season, the Tar Heels' backcourt should be a much more consistent group, especially under improved coaching and schematics.

The frontcourt is the great mystery in next season's squad, with Sayon Keita and Cade Bennerman joining the fold. Each player will be playing their first season in college basketball, with Keita possessing superstar talent.

What Would Be a Success for the Tar Heels?

Serra's Maximo Adams (25) looks to coaches as he runs down the court during the first quarter of their first-round CIF-SS playoff game at Indio High School in Indio, Calif., Wednesday, Feb. 7, 2024. | Andy Abeyta/The Desert Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK

Reaching the second weekend, let alone the second round of the NCAA Tournament, has escaped North Carolina in each of the last two seasons. While the roster may have taken a step back, in terms of talent, you could argue that the puzzle pieces are a better fit heading into 2026.

It has been evident over the last few years that backcourt play is paramount in the postseason, and quite frankly, there was too much inconsistency in that department in 2025. Brown, Avdalas, Able, and even Maximo Adams give the Tar Heels multiple players who can produce off the dribble against half-court defensive sets. Pairing that with Malone, who has mastered creating advantageous opportunities for his players, should be apparent immediately.

Apr 6, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone reacts in the second half against the Indiana Pacers at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Considering what has transpired this offseason, North Carolina's making a Sweet 16 appearance would be considered a success in Malone's first year in charge. Reaching the Elite Eight would be icing on the cake, but reaching the second weekend would be a significant step in the right direction. The Tar Heels' coaching staff elevates the team's chances of producing a worthwhile campaign.

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