Three Realistic Expectations for UNC Football in Belichick's First Season

There's a lot of hype around North Carolina's football program, probably more than any preseason that people in Chapel Hill can remember.

That's what happens when you hire an accomplished football coach like Bill Belichick, the former coach and architect of the New England Patriots' dynasty, one that won six Super Bowls. Because of Belichick's success and the constant media hype, the expectations are soon to follow.

While there aren't any crazy expectations for Belichick in his first season coaching Carolina, there will still be fans wondering all of the possibilities that could happen this season.

Here are three realistic expectations for the 2025 edition of the North Carolina Tar Heels.

Improvement for North Carolina’s Defense

UNC — Steve Belichick | Jackson McCurdy, North Carolina Tar Heels On SI

Yes, I really do think the defense can improve. Sure, it’s a low bar. But with the players the Tar Heels added in the portal along with the Belichick family’s expertise in defensive strategy, there’s a real possibility that this is a bounceback year for the Carolina defense.

The Tar Heels’ defense has often held them back from ACC title contention. Since 2015, UNC’s defense has ranked 94th or worse nationally in six of 10 seasons. Even the 2015 and 2022 teams that reached the ACC Championship Game finished 95th and 115th in total defense.

This season could be different with the experience and skill new defensive coordinator Steve Belichick and his defensive staff bring.

You might assume the younger Belichick is a classic nepotism hire, but he’s not. He has proven himself to be an excellent defensive play caller in his own right.

Belichick was the defensive coordinator for Washington last season, the first time in his career where he did not coach with his father. The year before he got there, the Huskies reached the national championship game. However, its defense struggled, allowing more than 400 yards per game — ranking 96th nationally — and nearly 260 passing yards per game, 117th overall.

Under Belichick’s guidance the following season, Washington’s defense improved greatly, ranking 28th nationally as it allowed just 328.3 total yards per game. The biggest improvement came in its pass defense, which allowed only 166.5 yards per game — second-best in the nation. That marked a jump of 113 spots from the prior season, a remarkable turnaround for the unit.

When Belichick was on his father’s staff in New England, helped coach a defense that ranked third in the NFL in opponent yards per play (4.7) and sixth in total defense, allowing 301.6 yards per game. New England also ranked third in rushing defense and 10th in passing defense. In 2022, the Patriots were ranked fifth in opponent yards per play, and in 2021, they ranked 10th in the same category.

The coaching staff did a great job of bringing in a lot of veteran players through the transfer portal, even if some of them are one-year rentals.

Defensive end Smith Vilbert (Penn State) and linebacker Andrew Simpson (Boise State) both saw significant College Football Playoff action last season.

UNC defensive end Smith Vilbert (92) while a member of Penn State last season. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Sophomore linebacker Khmori House and redshirt senior cornerback Thaddeus Dixon, former starters at Washington under Belichick, were a large part of Washington’s defensive rebound and they hope to do the same in Chapel Hill.

Safety Gavin Gibson is a versatile defender who recorded 52 tackles, seven tackles for loss and three interceptions at East Carolina last year.

The secondary features experienced seniors Dixon, Gibson, Marcus Allen and Will Hardy.

A 3,000-yard Passing Season

UNC quarterback Gio Lopez — North Carolina quarterback Gio Lopez (in red jersey) dropping back to pass at practice at the Koman Practice Complex on Aug. 2, 2025. | Jackson McCurdy, North Carolina Tar Heels on SI

Regardless of whether Gio Lopez or Max Johnson starts at quarterback, either could throw for 3,000 yards or more this season.

As a freshman quarterback at South Alabama last season, Lopez completed 66% of his passes for 2,559 yards, 18 touchdowns and five interceptions in 11 games. He also rushed for 463 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 274.7 total yards per game, which was good for 22nd nationally. Despite limited experience, Lopez excelled at deep throws and under pressure, earning a 91.0 deep passing grade from Pro Football Focus in 2024, completing 41% of throws 20+ yards for nine touchdowns.

Johnson is entering his sixth season, with nearly 6,000 career passing yards and 47 touchdowns at LSU, Texas A&M and North Carolina. His best season came at LSU in 2021, with 2,814 yards and 27 touchdowns. Injuries have limited him since, but his experience remains a strong asset. Johnson has also been an inspiration for his teammates after overcoming a gruesome leg injury that nearly cost him his leg.

With their skills, either quarterback can surpass 3,000 yards this year.

The Tar Heels will Go Bowlin’

UNC — North Carolina's Cort Halsey and teammates run out of the tunnel before the third annual Wasabi Fenway Bowl against UConn at Fenway Park on Saturday, Dec. 28, 2024. | Jason Snow / The Patriot Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This might be the most realistic expectation. North Carolina has played in a bowl game for five consecutive seasons and have made it to one in 12 of that last 15. Based on those numbers, North Carolina has an 80% chance of making a bowl game.

A lot will have to happen for the Tar Heels to miss out on a bowl game in my opinion. You have an experienced quarterback room. The offensive line has depth and while the running backs and wide receivers are unproven, there is still potential. We don’t need to talk about the defense as I just did that.

However, there’s still a 20% chance the Tar Heels could miss out on a bowl. Injuries could happen. The defense could stink again. Maybe Belichick cannot connect with college kids the way some people thought. A lot could happen.

Of all three expectations, this is the one I am most comfortable with.

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