The Three Keys of Victory for UNC vs. Cal

North Carolina fans will be in for a late night as their Tar Heels (2-3, 0-1 ACC) take on the California Golden Bears (4-2, 1-1 ACC) in Berkeley on Friday at 10:30 p.m. ET.

North Carolina is seeking its first win over a Power Four opponent since Nov. 16, 2024, when it defeated Wake Forest in Chapel Hill. This season, UNC has been outscored by Power Four opponents 120-33, with an average margin of defeat of 29 points. Most recently, the Tar Heels were overwhelmed by Clemson, 38-10, including a 28-3 first-quarter deficit.

California has a lot of good players, including freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, wide receiver Trond Grizzell, linebacker Cade Uluave, and cornerback Hezekiah Masses. Moreover, its defense is a solid one.

"It's a big challenge for us here going across the country to play a good football team, and a team that I know is very well coached," head coach Bill Belichick said. "They do a lot of things fundamentally well that we have to be ready for."

Here are my three keys to victory for North Carolina.

Create Pressure

North Carolina defensive lineman Isaiah Johnson making a tackle vs. Clemson; Oct. 4, 2025 | UNC Athletic Communications

This is a recurring key to victory for Carolina because, well, they have been terrible creating pressure.

The Tar Heels rank 120th nationally in total sacks per game and are last in the ACC, averaging just 1.20 sacks per contest. While North Carolina is tied for 56th with a Pro Football Focus pass rush grade of 73.9, their pass rush grade drops to 61.5 against Power Four opponents. Excluding the Charlotte and Richmond games, that grade would rank 129th out of 136 teams.

However, the Tar Heels will face a Cal offensive line that is currently struggling and must protect a true freshman quarterback.

Oct 4, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; California Golden Bears quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (3) warms up before taking on the Duke Blue Devils at California Memorial Stadium. | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

Cal’s starting quarterback, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, has completed 62.2 percent of his passes for 1,479 yards, with nine touchdowns and seven interceptions. However, as indicated by his interception total, Sagapolutele has had turnover issues.

While inconsistency is understandable for a freshman, it’s telling that, according to Pro Football Focus, six of Sagapolutele’s seven interceptions have come when he was not blitzed.

Furthermore, when under pressure, he has completed just 42.6 percent of his passes for 314 yards, with one touchdown and three interceptions.

Given Sagapolutele’s struggles with turnovers, UNC must find ways to apply consistent pressure on him. The more pressure they generate, the more likely he is to make mistakes.

Move the Chains

Quarterback Gio Lopez; Sept. 13, 2025 | Jackson McCurdy, North Carolina Tar Heels On SI

Once again, this is a recurring issue for the Tar Heels, and it will persist until they start converting first downs. UNC has recorded only 74 first downs this season, which is the lowest in the country and in the ACC. Additionally, the Tar Heels rank 125th out of 134 FBS teams in third-down conversions.

It also doesn’t bode well for UNC’s offense that Cal ranks 40th nationally in third down defense, placing them among the top teams in the country in that category.

Sep 13, 2019; Winston-Salem, NC, USA; A North Carolina Tar Heels helmet lays on the sidelines during the fourth quarter against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at BB&T Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-Imagn Images | Jeremy Brevard-Imagn Images

If the Tar Heels want to win this game—or any game going forward—they must get first downs, sustain drives, and put points on the board. This isn’t asking too much, even though North Carolina currently ranks 131st in the nation and last in the ACC in total offense.

Lock Up Cal’s Passing Threats

Sep 13, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers linebacker Matt Kingsbury (49) brings down California Golden Bears wide receiver Trond Grizzell (7) at the 3-yard line during the first quarter at California Memorial Stadium. | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

If there’s one unit on Cal’s offense that should worry North Carolina, it’s the receiving corps, which ranks among the best in the ACC.

Its leading receiver is former walk-on Trond Grizzell. He has been a big-time receiver for Cal and has a good frame for a receiver at 6-foot-4, 205 pounds. He has 24 catches for a team-high 400 yards and a touchdown.

Jacob De Jesus has a team-high 34 catches for 301 yards and two touchdowns. He is also Cal’s main return specialist.

Tight end Mason Mini is one of the best tight ends in the country, hauling in 26 catches for 279 yards and three touchdowns, which is a team-high three touchdowns. The most impressive thing about Mini is that he has not dropped a pass all year.

Why is locking up Cal’s receiving corps crucial for UNC? Because the Tar Heels have allowed Power Four opponents to complete 76% of their passes for a total of 906 yards (an average of 302 yards per game), with seven touchdowns and just one interception.

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