UNC’s Road to a Bowl Starts and Ends With Tobacco Road

After North Carolina defeated Stanford last Saturday, the Tar Heels are two wins away from bowl eligibility with a 4-5 record.

Sep 12, 2015; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; A pylon marks the endzone with the North Carolina Tar Heels and ACC logo during the game against the North Carolina A&T Aggies at Kenan Memorial Stadium. The Tar Heels defeated North Carolina A&T Aggies 53-14. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-Imagn Images | Jeremy Brevard-Imagn Images

Yes, who would have thought that a program unable to complete a pass for two hours during its embarrassing 48-14 loss to TCU on opening night—and mired in drama for more than half the season—would be positioned for a bowl game? After the Clemson loss, many believed North Carolina would not win another game after they were routed by Clemson on Oct. 4.

If you think I’m exaggerating, a representative from the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, Florida, attended the game, sat in the press box and even took a front-row seat at the postgame press conferences for Bill Belichick, quarterback Gio Lopez, wide receiver Jordan Shipp and linebacker Khmori House.

UNC, UNC Football, Jordan Shipp — Wide reveiver Jordan Shipp scoring a touchdown during its 20-15 victory over Stanford on Nov. 8, 2025. | Jackson McCurdy, North Carolina Tar Heels On SI

While the offense is still sputtering, the defense is starting to perform the way many expected. North Carolina is allowing 321 yards per game, ranking fifth in the ACC and 28th nationally.

The Tar Heels have 19 sacks in their last three games and now rank 11th nationally in sacks, averaging three per game. North Carolina recorded nine sacks in its win over Stanford, the third most in a single game in program history.

Oct 28, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; A detailed view of a North Carolina Tar Heels helmet on the field before a game against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Yes, North Carolina has been improving, and you could make a case that it should be 6-3 had it not shot itself in the foot against California and Virginia. Still, Syracuse and Stanford may not be considered marquee wins.

Syracuse’s starting quarterback is a walk-on from the lacrosse team, and Carolina’s offense was abysmal even against a Stanford defense that ranks near the bottom in nearly every category.

Nov 8, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels fans cheer in the third quarter at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Whatever you make of North Carolina’s season, it would be considered a success if the Tar Heels reach a bowl game—even if that is not why Belichick was hired. Nonetheless, the path to a bowl game begins and ends on Tobacco Road.

Tobacco Road Holds the Key to UNC’s Postseason Dreams

Nov 30, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels wide receiver J.J. Jones (13) scores a touchdown as North Carolina State Wolfpack cornerback Devon Marshall (16) and linebacker Sean Brown (0) defend in the second quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

North Carolina's final three games are against its three longtime in-state rivals: Wake Forest, Duke and NC State. While all three are winnable games, the Tar Heels haven't defeated at least two of its Tobacco Road foes since 2022 and all three since 2020.

Wake Forest (6-3) is coming off a win against then-No. 14 Virginia and has one of the best running backs in the conference with Demond Claiborne and a formidable defense that only allows 325.3 yards per game, which is 35th nationally.

While North Carolina is 9-6 against Wake since 2000, it is 3-4 against the Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem.

Duke (5-4) boasts one of the nation’s top passing attacks, averaging 312.9 yards per game under quarterback Darian Mensah, which ranks fourth nationally. Freshman running back Nate Sheppard has 657 yards and seven touchdowns. However, Duke’s defense is among the nation’s worst, giving up 406.4 yards per game (106th nationally) and 268.6 passing yards per game (126th).

NC State (5-4) is similar to Duke, featuring one of the nation’s top quarterback-running back duos in CJ Bailey and Hollywood Smothers. The Wolfpack’s offense ranks 27th, averaging 438 yards per game. Like Duke, NC State struggles on defense, allowing nearly 425 yards per game, including 292.4 passing yards.

While North Carolina’s chances of winning two out of three games to reach a bowl are slim, it is not impossible. It may require a defensive effort reminiscent of the 1985 Bears, but the Tar Heels still have a chance if the offense can find its footing. That did not happen against Stanford. The road to a bowl game runs through Tobacco Road, and it is long and bumpy.

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