Numbers Reveal One Potential Concern for UNC's New Roster

You can’t expect this North Carolina team to look anything like last season. With a brand new head coach and a roster full of talent that is still a bit unknown, this team will be very interesting to watch when the college basketball season finally arrives.

Mar 23, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone reacts during the third quarter against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Trouble From Deep

Last season, North Carolina was not particularly lethal from the three-point line, shooting 34.2 percent from behind the line. Overall, it ranked average or slightly below average compared to other Division I teams. Regardless, it’s not where North Carolina wants to be, but it isn’t the end of the world by any means.

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels center Henri Veesaar (13) bites his jersey against the VCU Rams in the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While shooting a high clip from beyond the arc will always be considered a good thing, it isn’t a direct path to success. Plenty of teams last season shot well from three but still lacked overall success. SMU and NC State both shot some of the highest percentages in the country, but failed to even make it past the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

This season, can North Carolina shoot a better percentage from three, and if so, which players will be the reason for the rise in efficiency from last year?

Jan 18, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Seth Trimble (7) shoots a three point shot as Stanford Cardinal guard Ryan Agarwal (11) defends in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

In the 2025-2026 season, North Carolina’s leader in three-point percentage was actually Isaiah Denis with 50% after going 4-of-8 from three. If you only look at players with a stronger sample size, the answer becomes big man Henri Veesaar, shooting 40-of-94 at 42.6%.

It’s usually not a great sign if your center leads the team in three-point percentage. When you look ahead at the new additions, it’s not exactly thrilling either.

Newcomers' Three-Point Percentage

Feb 18, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Utah Utes guard Terrence Brown (2) shoots a three pointer during the second half against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Terrence Brown, the newcomer transferring in from Utah, shot only 32.7 percent from three. Matt Able from NC State comes in at 35.5, and Neoklis Avdalas at 31.4. All three of those projected starting players rank below or around the average for North Carolina last season, which doesn't exactly project a huge leap in those numbers.

The highest transfer newcomer in three-point percentage lies in the hands of former Buffalo guard Angelo Brizzi at 37.3. Still, it’s nothing to get overly thrilled about.

Again, three-point-happy teams don’t always pan out. In fact, last season, Arizona had the third-lowest three-point shooting attempt rate in the country and had one of the most successful seasons.

If Michael Malone plays to the strengths of his players, three-point shooting just may not be in the cards for North Carolina this season. That is, unless Malone's offensive system creates more catch-and-shoot opportunities, which in turn may raise everyone's percentages.

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