What UNC Basketball Fans Should Realistically Expect This Season

When it comes to new components on a basketball team, North Carolina may rank No. 1 in the country.

The 2026 season brings plenty of excitement for Tar Heel fans, but also plenty of questions. The Tar Heels will court a brand-new starting five compared to what we saw at the beginning of the season a year ago, and Michael Malone will begin his tenure as head coach.

Mar 28, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone during the second quarter against the Utah Jazz at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While the standard for North Carolina basketball is always winning a championship, what are realistic expectations for the Heels in year one under Malone?

National Championship?

Feb 28, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Utah Utes guard Terrence Brown (2) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Only one first-year head coach (Steve Fisher) has ever won a National Championship in college basketball. Interestingly enough, former Tar Heel Hubert Davis came close, reaching the championship game, where they ultimately lost to Kansas.

Of course, every Tar Heel fan is hoping for a National Championship. This is North Carolina; that’s what fans are supposed to expect. However, in year one, lowering expectations and just looking for improvement may be a better benchmark to start out Malone’s era in Chapel Hill. According to Malone's interview with CBS' Jon Rothstein, it seems like he agrees with that sentiment as well:

"Goal No. 1 is not to win a championship, because every team says that. If you're serious about that, your first goal is always going to be, we have to find a way to get better every day."

What Makes This Season a Success

The Heels have had back-to-back first-round losses in the NCAA Tournament, and things finally seem like they can change. I would consider Malone’s first season a success if North Carolina simply makes it to the second round of the tournament.

I know that’s setting the bar a bit low for a program as prestigious as North Carolina, but improvement is what I would be looking for. After two straight years of not watching the Heels in the second round, an improvement from that misery would be substantial enough to be okay with.

It’s not going to be an easy season for North Carolina, and I don’t want to be naive about that. The ACC looks much stronger, and with so many moving parts, it could be tough for the Heels to get the wheels turning.

However, they have the talent to do something special this season. There is an immense amount of potential on this roster, and if everyone succeeds in their own role and chases continual improvement like Malone preaches, Heels fans could be in for a pleasant surprise.

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