Lincoln Riley's Sky High Buyout Resurfaces Before Oregon Matchup

Will USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley be on the hot seat with a loss to Oregon?

Sep 19, 2026; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley on the field during warm ups before the game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Los Angeles — The No. 12 USC Trojans face the No. 20 Oregon Ducks on Saturday, and while the game might carry recruiting implications on the West Coast, the pressure on USC coach Lincoln Riley may be higher than expected.

According to ESPN's Pete Thamel, Riley's seat won't just be warming up if the Trojans are unable tog et the job done against the Ducks.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, right, and USC head coach Lincoln Riley shake hands post game as the Oregon Ducks host the USC Trojans on Nov. 22, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Pete Thamel Reports Lincoln Riley's Buyout

"If they lose Saturday, it's reasonable to say Lincoln Riley is on the hot seat. It's obviously been good, but it's not been great. He's not made the Playoff. Simply put, they did not hire him to be just good. The number to fire Lincoln Riley is $72 million. So as much as he's been good, that's an extreme amount of money," said Thamel.

"Now, remember, James Franklin had a buyout that was around 50 million, he got another job. You know, these things are subject to offset and mitigation and such, but yes, that is a Jimbo Fisher-esque number, and it is going to weigh into the calculus," Thamel continued.

A loss to Oregon won't eliminate the Trojans from the College Football Playoff in week 4, but it would set USC back in its pursuit of re-establishing itself as the premier program on the West Coast.

Sep 19, 2026; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) warms up before the game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The latest betting odds from DraftKings Sportsbook currently favor Oregon coach Dan Lanning and the Ducks over USC by 3.5 points.

Lincoln Riley, USC Trojans

The Trojans have invested heavily into the football program since Riley's arrival in Los Angeles, including the hiring of general manager Chad Bowden and the construction of the Bloom Football Performance Center, a state-of-the art facility dedicated to USC football.

With the help of Bowden and a revamped recruiting staff, the Trojans signed the No. 1 class in 2026 and continue to recruit at an elite level, especially in the state of California.

Sep 19, 2026; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts during the second half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Riley seemingly has the program headed in the right direction, but winning on the field matters most. According to Thamel, a loss against Oregon is enough for Riley's seat to heat up.

Is that because of the West Coast rivalry with the Ducks? Or because of Oregon's recent upset loss to Oklahoma State? Regardless, USC's game with Oregon is only the first Big Ten test of the season as Riley and company will have to navigate matchups with No. 5 Indiana and No. 7 Ohio State still on the schedule.

Whether USC is committed to moving on from Riley, and paying the reportedly $72 million buyout, remains to be seen. The Trojans coach could beat Oregon and put hot seat rumors to rest, but how much will they grow if the Ducks are able to pick up a win over Riley and company?

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