Three Reasons Why USC Trojans' Playoff Hopes are Still Alive

Despite falling to the No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, the USC Trojans remain in the hunt for the College Football Playoff thanks to strong national metrics and a favorable schedule in Big Ten conference play.

Dec 27, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Texas A&M Aggies in the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Even after a double-digit loss in South Bend, Indiana, the USC Trojans’ dreams for the College Football Playoff aren't dead yet. The path is narrow, but it’s still visible — built on national respect, remaining opportunity, and an offense capable of carrying them the distance.

Here are three reasons why USC still has a fighting chance to crash the College Football Playoff.

1. The Numbers Still Believe in USC

Nov 2, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches pregame warmups against the Washington Huskies at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Despite the setback, the national polls and metrics show lingering confidence in coach Lincoln Riley’s squad.

USC dropped out of the AP Top 25 after entering the weekend ranked No. 20, but only slipped six spots to effectively sit at No. 26. The US LBM Coaches Poll told a similar story, sliding the Trojans from No. 21 to No. 27.

That’s hardly the freefall most expected after a double-digit loss.

Even ESPN’s Football Power Index agreed — bumping USC up from No. 9 to No. 8 this week. The FPI’s formula leans on advanced analytics, rewarding the Trojans’ elite efficiency.

They currently rank top-two nationally in offensive production but top-60 defensively, still positioning USC among the more balanced programs in the country.

The Fighting Irish, now 6–1, are ranked 13th in the Coaches Poll and 12th in the AP Poll. Factoring in the strength of schedule, the Trojans’ defeat looks more like a stumble than a collapse.

2. The Schedule Sets the Stage for a Run

Nov 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley greets quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) after scoring a touchdown against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The road ahead favors redemption. USC’s remaining slate includes just one ranked opponent — a massive Nov. 22 road trip to Oregon — and three of their last five games are at home.

Their biggest hurdles are No.6 Oregon, Iowa and crosstown rival UCLA, who’s heating up after three straight wins.

If the Bruins can pick up victories against any combination of No. 1 Ohio State, No. 10 Indiana, or Washington before the rivalry game, that season finale could become another résumé booster.

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A 10–2 USC team with wins over Michigan and Oregon would have one of the more competitive cases among two-loss programs — especially if chaos strikes the SEC and Big 12.

Alabama still faces No. 20 LSU, No. 13 Oklahoma, and Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Texas must navigate a brutal stretch featuring No. 10 Vanderbilt, No. 5 Georgia, and No. 3 Texas A&M.

Any shakeups there could open the door for the Trojans to sneak back into the picture.

3. The Offense Can Still Carry the Load

Oct 18, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) passes the ball against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first half at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Even in defeat, the Trojans’ offensive engine remains elite. Quarterback Jayden Maiava ranks third nationally in passing yards (2,180) and ninth in passer rating (173.5).

His connection with star receiver Makai Lemon — top-two in receiving yards and top-10 in receptions nationwide — continues to define USC’s explosive identity.

Their struggles against Notre Dame came down to one costly gamble. With 11 minutes left in a 27–24 game, a trick-play fumble by Lemon flipped momentum, setting up a quick Fighting Irish score.

What followed wasn’t a collapse — it was a reminder of how thin the margins are against playoff-caliber opponents.

Lincoln Riley acknowledged the team’s overcorrection in postgame comments, saying, “I just thought we overcompensated and at times, panicked a little bit.”

But context matters — Notre Dame played desperate football, knowing a loss would end its own playoff hopes.

For USC, the lesson is clear: stick to what works. Their offense still grades among the nation’s best. Their quarterback is producing at a Heisman-caliber level. And their schedule still offers a path — narrow, but real.

The Trojans’ margin for error is gone, but the opportunity remains. If USC can win out, secure quality victories down the stretch, and capitalize on chaos elsewhere, they’ll still be standing when the committee debates those final four spots.