USC's Season Could Impact Lincoln Riley's Future With the Trojans

With the expectations of competing for a College Football Playoff appearance, what is USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley's future with USC if the Trojans fail to reach their goals?

Sep 27, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley before an NCAA football game with the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley enters the season with high expectations thanks to the arrival of the No. 1 recruiting class and several top returning players, including starting quarterback Jayden Maiava.

Many expect Riley to lead the Trojans to the College Football Playoff, which he has yet to accomplish during his USC tenure. 

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) and head coach Lincoln Riley react after the game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Last season, the Trojans finished with a 9-4 overall record, including a 30-27 overtime loss to the TCU Horned Frogs. All three of the Trojans' regular-season losses came on the road, a struggle they hope to avoid when facing a gauntlet of a Big Ten schedule in 2026, which includes matchups against the Oregon Ducks, Ohio State Buckeyes, Indiana Hoosiers, Penn State Nittany Lions, and Washington Huskies.

Why 2026 Season Is Pivotal For Lincoln Riley

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley (right) talks with quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) in the second half against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Even if the Trojans win the majority of the tough games on their schedule, along with winning the games they are supposed to, USC could still miss the CFP with a 10-2 overall record. If that’s the case, USC will have an extremely difficult decision to make on Riley’s future with the Trojans. 

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Anything less than reaching the CFP next season would be viewed as a failure by a majority of Trojans fans. With so much on the line in 2026, ESPN recently released a way-too-early college football coaching hot seat tiers for next season, and Riley's position is noteworthy.

Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

According to ESPN’s list, Riley is on “it’s going to cost us” coaching hot seat tiers. Not only have the Trojans not reached the CFP during Riley’s tenure, but they have also failed to win a conference title, either the Pac-12 or the Big Ten. 

Lincoln Riley's Resume at USC

The expectation at USC is to compete for and win championships, and under Riley, the Trojans have failed to meet those expectations. Since the CFP began in 2015, USC has remained one of the most storied programs in college football without reaching the playoff.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, right, and USC head coach Lincoln Riley shake hands postgame as the Oregon Ducks host the USC Trojans on Nov. 22, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Entering his fifth season as the Trojans coach, Riley posts a 35-18 record and is 2-2 in bowl games. It’s Riley’s 6-13 record against ranked teams that is the biggest cause of concern, however, for Trojans fans.

Riley is also 0-5 against top 10 teams in his four seasons. One of those losses came last season against the Oregon Ducks, a game in which the Trojans fell 42-27 at Autzen Stadium. The loss to Oregon knocked USC out of the conversation for an at-large bid in the CFP.

Getting rid of Riley is a challenge of its own if the Trojans fail to reach expectations next season. Riley’s contract with USC was orchestrated by the Trojans former athletic director, Mike Bohn, not the current AD, Jen Cohen, which makes firing him a difficult decision as it would cost a massive buyout. When Riley was hired in November of 2021 and left the Oklahoma Sooners, he signed a 10-year, $110 million contract with the Trojans.