Best and Worst Case Scenarios for USC, Lincoln Riley Next Season

The USC Trojans look to make the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history.

Nov 30, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The 2026 college football season is considered make-or-break for coach Lincoln Riley and the USC Trojans as they look to finally break through and reach the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history.

After falling short last season with a 9-4 overall record and all three of their regular-season losses coming on the road, Trojan fans are hoping that with the return of star quarterback Jayden Maiava and the arrival of new defensive coordinator Gary Patterson, 2026 will be the year of the Trojans. 

Dec 30, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) carries the ball against the TCU Horned Frogs in the second half during the Alamo Bowl at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

With spring practice wrapped up and fall camp on the horizon for the Trojans, here’s a look at the best and worst-case scenarios for USC next season. 

Best Case: 10-2, College Football Playoff Appearance

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley celebrates after kicker Ryon Sayeri (48) hit a 54-yard field goal in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The one time the Trojans finished with 10-plus wins was during Riley’s first season with former USC star quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams. That USC squad came just short of reaching the College Football Playoff, falling to the Utah Utes in the Pac-12 championship. 

This time around, USC hopes 10 wins will be enough to earn a spot in the CFP. The Trojans have a difficult Big Ten schedule for the 2026 season that includes two home matchups against the Oregon Ducks (Sept. 26) and Ohio State Buckeyes (Oct. 31). The Trojans also look to overcome the challenges of winning on the road against the Penn State Nittany Lions (Oct. 10) and Indiana Hoosiers (Nov. 14). 

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, right, and USC head coach Lincoln Riley shake hands postgame as the Oregon Ducks host the USC Trojans on Nov. 22, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The best likely scenario is that USC wins all of its remaining games on its 2026 schedule and takes two of its four difficult 2026 matchups. A 10-2 overall record should be enough for the Trojans to earn an at-large bid in the CFP.

How far USC can advance in the CFP is up for debate, as the Trojans proved even last season that they have a talented enough offense to compete with any team in college football. 

Worst Case: 8-4, Missing College Football Playoff

Oct 18, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley talks to an official during the first half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

The worst-case scenario for the Trojans next season would be losing all four of their marquee matchups against Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana. 

Even if the Trojans were to win some of these four matchups, there are still other notable games on USC’s schedule that could cause them to slip up, including a home game against the Washington Huskies and closing out the regular season at the Rose Bowl against the UCLA Bruins, led by new coach Bob Chesney. 

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) and head coach Lincoln Riley react after the game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

An 8-4 finish to a season that is set to feature massive expectations for the Trojans would be a disaster for USC. Many of the Trojans' faithful will likely be desperate for Lincoln Riley's firing if the worst-case scenario comes true. 

USC is scheduled to open up the 2026 season on Aug. 29 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum against the San Jose State Spartans. It’ll be the seventh ever meeting between USC and San Jose State and the first since 2023, when the Trojans won 56-28 in Los Angeles. 

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