USC Trojans' Biggest Questions in Pursuit of a National Championship

The USC Trojans may have analytics and odds stacked against them, but if they can get over these questions, they will have a chance of competing for a national championship.

Sep 7, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Utah State Aggies during the first quarter at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

The Trojans may have the most returns in the Big Ten, the No. 1 overall recruiting class, a top-50 transfer portal class, a veteran quarterback, a legendary coach as a defensive coordinator and one of the best offensive minds at the helm of the program, yet their playoff hopes seem distant.

BetMGM currently has USC going 8-4 (8.5 total wins) this season – +270 odds for the over and -350 for the under. As for Southern Cal’s National Championship odds, DraftKings has them at +3,500. The unfortunate truth is that a lot of things have to go the Trojans' way if they want to end their 21-year drought. ESPN's Bill Connelly wrote about what the biggest "ifs" are for college football's biggest contenders, and for the Trojans, three big questions arise.

Gary Patterson and the Revamped Defense

Jul 17, 2017; Frisco, TX, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson speaks to the media during the Big 12 media days at the Frisco Star Ford Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The last time Patterson was on a coaching staff was in the 2021 college football season. TCU finished the year with a 5-7 record and the Horned Frogs' defense finished at the bottom end of the 130 FBS programs – No. 118 in scoring defense (34.9 points per game) and No. 119 in total defense (462 yards allowed per game), per Sports Reference.

As for the Trojans' defense, the unit was treated as an afterthought in the early years of Lincoln Riley’s tenure. Coming into the 2026 season, the Trojans will now have three different defensive coordinators, two years (2022, 2023) ranked outside the top 100 in total defense and one solid season in 2025 – No. 51 scoring defense (23 points per game), No. 47 pass defense (207.5 yards per game) and a No. 58 run defense (143.2 yards per game).

With four losses projected to come in conference games, it's detrimental that Patterson tightens up the Trojans’ run defense against the elite Big Ten programs. Per ESPN, the Trojans ranked No. 97 in yards per carry with no sacks and gave up 170 rushing yards in three of their four losses. 

Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans defensive end Braylan Shelby (10) celebrates with defensive end Kameryn Crawford (1) after bringing down Michigan State Spartans quarterback Aidan Chiles (2) during the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

With the projected starters of Braylan Shelby, Jahkeem Stewart, Jide Abasiri and Kameryn Crawford – who are all 6-5 and over 260 pounds – and veteran transfers, like Zuriah Fisher and Jamaal Jarrett, who can make impact on rotations, the Trojans look to compete in the Big Ten trenches. 

In the secondary, the Trojans will be back at full health. Prophet Brown and Chasen Johnson are returning after missing most of 2025, Alex Graham will hopefully put together a full-season after showing flashes of high-end play last year and Marcelles Williams can build upon his breakout season as the Trojans No. 1 corner. Transfer Jontez Williams and Carrington Pierce will also be valuable additions to the secondary. 

It's also important to remember the impact Patterson had at TCU: five-time No. 1 overall total defense (2000, 2002, 2008, 2009, 2010). If Patterson and the revamped defense can deliver, USC has a true title shot.

USC’s Home Dominance and Struggles on the Road

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans defensive tackle Brendan Cho (91) runs on to the field for the game against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Last season the Trojans had a perfect 7-0 record in true home games, boosting Riley’s overall home-record to 22-5. The last time Riley and the Trojans went 7-0 at home was in 2022, which included a huge victory over No. 15 Notre Dame.  

For the 2026 season the Trojans will have their College Football Playoff hopes on the line in three home games – Oregon on Sept. 26, Washington on Oct. 3 and Ohio State visiting on Oct. 31. Besides the team’s preparation and gameplan, Southern Cal fans will need to bring the energy if the Trojans are to win these important matchups.

On the flip slide, the Trojans are 10-10 in true road games under Riley. Last season USC went 2-3 during their away games – two crucial conference losses to Illinois and Oregon along with a rivalry loss to the Fighting Irish. 

Oct 14, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) is tackled by Notre Dame Fighting Irish linebacker Jaylen Sneed (3) and defensive lineman Howard Cross III (56) in the fourth quarter at Notre Dame Stadium. Notre Dame won 48-20. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

The drop in road performance has a few factors:

• Defensive inconsistencies from 2022 to 2024, lack of a physical roster, inability to get third-down stops and explosive plays. 
• Transitioning to the Big Ten has cut into recovery time. Players are traveling cross-country and are playing in different time zones.
• Riley’s offense starts to sputter with penalties, long third-down conversions and inefficiency in the red zone.

If Riley and the coaching staff can clean up on the away inefficiencies and continue their reign of top-10-level play at the Coliseum, they can stamp their ticket to a CFP berth.

Jayden Maiava’s New Receiving Corps

Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The team and their fans were blessed with one of the best receiving duos in the nation, and arguably program history, with Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane in 2025. The two were crucial in Maiava’s big step in his first season as a full-time starter and nationally ranked offense – No. 13 total offense (465.5 yards per game) and No. 6 passing offense (296 yards per game).

For the upcoming season, the wide receiver room will heavily depend on underclassmen. The only returning starter (eight starts, 13 appearances) will be sophomore Tanook Hines, who posted 34 receptions for 561 yards and two touchdowns. Following Hines is redshirt-sophomore Zacharyus Williams, who only appeared in five games due to injury.

NC State transfer-junior Terrell Anderson is the only pass catcher with No. 1 option experience – 39 receptions for 629 yards and five touchdowns in 2025. 

Dec 30, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Southern California Trojans wide receiver Tanook Hines (16) gestures after a reception against the TCU Horned Frogs in the second half during the Alamo Bowl at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Although Southern Cal loaded up on blue-chip talent in the 2026 recruiting cycle with Trent Mosley, Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, Luc Weaver and Boobie Feaster, it is still a tall task for the true freshman to step up.

If the Trojans can establish a starting four early and their young talent rises to the occasion, Maiava’s development can only continue as the Trojans fight their way to the top. 

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