USC Trojans' Playoff Chances Doubted Before Pivotal Season

USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley once again has an intriguing team heading into 2026 with proven talent at the quarterback position but some big question marks elsewhere on the roster, mainly on the defensive side of the ball.

Betting odds from FanDuel are not particularly high on Riley and the Trojans, giving USC odds of +3500 to win the national championship. That gives the Trojans the 15th-best odds in the country, but USC still sits behind Big Ten foes like Michigan (+3300), Oregon (+800), Indiana (+750) and Ohio State (+550).

usc trojans lincoln riley national championship program recruiting gary patterson big ten michigan wolverines — Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Michigan State Spartans during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

When it comes to making the College Football Playoff, the Trojans' odds are +270, also good for No. 15 in the nation and No. 5 in the Big Ten. Riley has built USC back into a program with top-15 expectations, but the national championship still feels like a step away.

Bleacher Report's David Kenyon is "selling" USC's national championship odds, grouping the Trojans in the same boat as the Michigan Wolverines in 2026:

"The story is similar for USC and Michigan, which return their quarterback, a healthy number of core contributors and landed some impact-level transfers. But their schedules are also incredibly difficult. Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State sit on both dockets, along with Washington for USC and then Oklahoma and Iowa for Michigan. If you're seeing 10-2 or better for either one, good luck," said Kenyon.

USC Trojans in 2026

USC beat Michigan at home 31-13 during the 2025 regular season, but the two teams do not face each other in 2026. As noted by Kenyon, though, the Trojans will have to get past a tough schedule in 2026.

If the goal is making the CFP, USC will most likely have to beat one of Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana while remaining unscathed throughout the rest of the season.

USC quarterback Jayden Maiava is a rather proven commodity after throwing for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns, and the Trojans have added talent to the wide receiver room to complement Tanook Hines, including NC State transfer Terrell Anderson and recruits like Trent Mosley, Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, Tron Baker, and Boobie Feaster, who enrolls in the near future.

The offensive line dealt with injuries in 2025, but all five starters return which should give talented freshmen linemen like Keenyi Pepe and Breck Kolojay, to name a couple, some time to develop.

USC's Biggest Question

How will the defense look under coordinator Gary Patterson?

The defensive line has some experienced leaders in Braylan Shelby, Jide Abasiri, Kameryn Crawford, Jamaal Jarrett, as well as Michigan State transfer Alex VanSumeren. Former five-star recruit Jahkeem Stewart fashed as a true freshman, and he can be a difference maker for USC on defense.

The Trojans also recruited the defensive line position well, giving Patterson plenty of potential pieces to rotate.

Linebacker may be a question mark given the strength of the defensive line and secondary, but the Trojans can rely on Desman Stephens II, Elijah Newby and Washington transfer Deven Bryant. Freshman linebacker Talanoa Ili could also be one to watch.

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