USC Fans Will Not Like These College Football Playoff Projections

The USC Trojans are projected to once again miss the College Football Playoff.

Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Michigan State Spartans during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans are seeking their first ever appearance in the College Football Playoff. According to these playoff projections, the Trojans will be on the outside looking in once again in 2026. 

USC Projected to Miss 2026 College Football Playoff 

Southern California coach Lincoln Riley looks for answers against Oregon during the second half touchdown Nov. 22, 2025. | Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Brett McMurphy of On3 revealed his post-spring playoff projections for the 2026 college football season. He has USC missing out on the 12-team field. Here are the 12 teams McMurphy predicts will make it. 

No. 1 Miami Hurricanes
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes
No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
No.4 Georgia Bulldogs
No. 5 Oregon Ducks
No. 6 Texas Longhorns
No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers
No. 8 Texas A&M Aggies
No. 9 Texas Tech Red Raiders
No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners
No. 11 Penn State Nittany Lions
No. 12 North Dakota State Bison

NEW: Post-Spring College Football Playoff Prediction via @Brett_McMurphy🏆

Do you agree?🤔

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— On3 (@On3) May 6, 2026

There are four Big Ten teams on here: Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, and Penn State. USC will have the opportunity to prove this list wrong as they will face all four of these teams in the regular season. 

Instead of the playoff, McMurphy has USC making the Las Vegas Bowl against the Michigan Wolverines. This is a familiar place for the Trojans, as they were in this bowl game just two years ago. They ended up facing Texas A&M and won.

Last season, USC went 9-3 in the regular season and made it to the Alamo Bowl. They lost to the TCU Horned Frogs.  

Lincoln Riley Entering Year Five With Trojans  

Oct 28, 2023; Berkeley, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley (left) greets California Golden Bears head coach Justin Wilcox (right) after a game at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

The Trojans enter the 2026 season with high expectations. USC coach Lincoln Riley is heading into year five as coach in Los Angeles. He is one of the highest paid coaches in the country and at a program with a long history of success like USC, being in the running for conference and national titles is expected. However, that hasn’t been the case for the Trojans in quite some time. 

Since 2008, USC only has one conference title, zero national title game appearances, and zero playoff appearances. Riley has been tasked with changing that. It has not happened yet. 

Riley has an overall record of 35-18 since taking over as coach in 2022. USC won 11 games in his first year, losing in the Pac-12 championship game. They have not cracked 10 wins since. 

It’s been disappointing for USC fans. Before taking the USC job, Riley was was the Oklahoma coach from 2017-2021. He accumulated an overall record of 55-10 with four Big 12 conference titles, and three playoff appearances. 

Nov 22, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) warms up before the game against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Some good news for USC is that they will be getting back their starting quarterback from last season in Jayden Maiava. Maiava had the chance to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft but he instead decided to return to USC for another season.

In his first season as the USC starter in 2025, Maiava threw for 3,711 yards with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He was named Third-team All-Big Ten.

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