Potential Playoff Path for USC Trojans, Lincoln Riley

The USC Trojans have completed their 2026 schedule with the recent addition of San Jose State as their week 0 opponent, which comes as a result of the pause in the rivalry with Notre Dame.

USC faces a "sink or swim" season under coach Lincoln Riley. Riley is entering his fifth season as head coach, and still has not sent the Trojans to the College Football Playoff. Looking ahead at their entire 2026 slate, potential paths for the Trojans to make CFP are in reach.

USC's Playoff Path Is In Reach

USC Trojans Lincoln Riley College Football Playoff San Jose State Big Ten CFP Ohio State Buckeyes Oregon Ducks Penn State Nit — Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley celebrates with fans after the game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The 2026 schedule allows opportunity for the Trojans to build off of, especially with key returners and the talented 2026 freshman class suiting up for their first collegiate season. USC has all the tools to make waves this fall, but must execute if they want to secure a CFP spot.

The Trojans have a returning quarterback, offensive line, running back duo and various defensive stars for the fall and could truly make a run if they can start off hot.

Kicking off the fall are three consecutive home matches before Big Ten play, starting with San Jose State in week 0, followed by Fresno State and finishing with Louisiana in week 2. While these three opponents don't present themselves as threats to the Trojans CFP run, walking into conference play with a comfortable 3-0 record, especially on the road for their first Big Ten contest, will be the most important.

Once the Trojans return from their conference opener at Rutgers, the competition heightens quickly. USC will face Oregon at home in week 4, followed by Washington, a road contest at Penn State and then their first bye in week 7. The Oregon Ducks reached the CFP Semifinals before falling to eventual national champion Indiana, but returning quarterback Dante Moore already makes them a probable CFP contender.

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It's no secret the Trojans face one of their most competitive conference slates since joining the Big Ten in 2024, as they face three 2025 CFP contenders this fall. However, the 2025 season presented progress under Riley, finishing 9-4 overall and 7-2 in Big Ten play. Now, the time is now for the Trojans carry that momentum into the fall to win the big games and find themselves in a CFP position.

Must-Win Games on USC's 2026 Schedule

With No Notre Dame on the Trojans' schedule after negations fell through, USC has a non-stop Big Ten slate when it comes to conference play.

While every team aims to go undefeated and win a national championship, USC faces several games that can be viewed as “must-wins” based on where they fall in the season.

Three must-wins that stand out are Oregon, at Penn State and Ohio State.

Why these three in-particular? It's the placement of the matchups and what comes after them. Oregon is placed right after a road contest at Rutgers and before Washington. Penn State on the road comes right after Washington and before their first bye of the season, and Ohio State is right before a road contest at Indiana.

Last season, USC found themselves entering both bye weeks with losses, in week 5 at Illinois and at Notre Dame in week 7. The Trojans won both games coming out of their byes, but how they handle the off weeks will be worth monitoring in 2026.

College football fans have seen what USC is capable of, but the 2026 season will be very telling for the program's CFP path.