USC Fans Won't Like Analytics Projection For Trojans Schedule

Preseason analytics project the USC Trojans to have a disappointing season in 2026, with expectations to make the College Football Playoff.

Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The USC Trojans' 2026 season is on the horizon, and as the team begins its preparations for fall camp, there is much to look forward to this year, including a potential spot in the College Football Playoff. 

Some believe that this could be the year that the Trojans, in their fifth season under coach Lincoln Riley, finally break through and reach the CFP. Computer analytics, however, tell a completely different story, and the Trojans could be set up for another season of falling short in the playoff.

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) heads on to the field for the game against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Here’s a look at the Trojans' predicted chances for each game on their regular-season schedule, according to ESPN’s analytics.

USC Trojans Win Percentage vs. Opponents Per ESPN Analytics 

• Aug. 29 vs. San Jose State: USC favored at 98.4 percent
• Sept. 4 vs. Fresno State: USC favored at 92.0 percent
• Sept. 12 vs. Louisiana: USC favored at 97.3 percent
• Sept. 19 at Rutgers: USC favored at 82.4 percent
• Sept. 26: vs Oregon: Oregon favored at 67.3 percent
• Oct. 3: vs Washington: USC favored at 77.4 percent
• Oct. 10: at Penn State: Penn State favored at 53.1 percent
• Oct. 17: at Wisconsin: USC favored at 76.8 percent
• Oct. 31: vs Ohio State: Ohio State favored at 75 percent
• Nov. 14: at Indiana: Indiana favored at 77.3 percent
• Nov. 21: vs Maryland: USC favored at 92.5 percent
• Nov. 28: vs UCLA: USC favored at 86.1 percent

Final Projected Record: 8-4

What to Make Of Trojans Projection

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) and head coach Lincoln Riley react after the game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This is the nightmare scenario for the Trojans. Losing all four of their marquee games would be considered a disaster of a season and wouldn’t meet the expectations of many USC fans. With so much pressure on Riley to lead the Trojans to the CFP this season, even finishing at 8-4 and losing all four of their biggest matchups could result in the end of his tenure with the Trojans despite the impressive recruiting classes he’s put together. 

Whether this happens, however, is a conversation for down the road. However, given the Trojans' football program's standard to compete for championships, 8-4 would be viewed as an unacceptable finish.

ESPN FPI gives the Trojans a 27.7 percent chance to make the CFP for the first time, which is fourth-best among Big Ten teams behind the Ohio State Buckeyes (75.7 percent), Oregon Ducks (64.7 percent), and Indiana Hoosiers (57.0 percent).

Nov 1, 2025; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) warms up before the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Just behind the Trojans are the Michigan Wolverines (23.2 percent) and Penn State Nittany Lions (22.0 percent). As for the Trojans' chances of winning their first national championship since 2004, ESPN FPI gives USC a 1.7 percent chance of winning the title and a 3.9 percent chance of making the national championship game in Las Vegas on Jan. 25, 2027.

As for the betting odds, per FanDuel Sportsbook, the Trojans have +420 odds to make the CFP and +3500 to win the national championship this season.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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