The Reason Why USC’s Lincoln Riley Is on List of Coaches on Hot Seat

USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley is heading into his fifth season at the helm in Los Angeles. The Trojans are still eyeing their first trip to the College Football Playoff and it will be Riley’s duty to get them there.

Just how much pressure will be on Riley this season?

Pressure Rising For Lincoln Riley

usc trojans lincoln riley hot seat big ten college football playoff national championship jayden maiava recruiting class — Jul 24, 2025; Las Vegas, NV, USA; USC head coach Lincoln Riley speaks to the media during the Big Ten NCAA college football media days at Mandalay Bay Resort. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Andy Staples of On3 revealed his list of coaches that are entering the 2026 college football season on the hot seat. Staples has Riley on this list. He explained why.

“In the past two years, the Trojans’ administration has worked to give Riley everything he needs to succeed.” Staples said. “They should now be in position to compete at the top of the Big Ten and make the 12-team CFP. If Riley does that, he’ll be fine. If he equals last season, he’s probably fine. But anything worse than last year probably won’t be acceptable.”

NEW: College Football head coaches on the hot seat via @AndyStaples🔥

Do you agree?🤔https://t.co/Dp3g5hmQKb pic.twitter.com/WMeE8UksF1
— On3 (@On3) July 21, 2026

In 2025, the Trojans went 9-3, missing out on the College Football Playoff and earning a berth in the Alamo Bowl, where they lost to the TCU Horned Frogs to finish the season at 9-4. Through Riley’s first four seasons with USC, he has an overall record of 35-18. This isn’t a bad mark by any means, but the expectation at USC is higher.

The Trojans have a long history of program success with national championships and conference championships. They have not consistently been at this level in nearly two decades. There’s been a lot of seasons with bowl appearances but not reaching the ultimate goal of a national championship.

That’s what Riley brought in to do. To get USC back to competing for championships.

2026 will be a big year for Riley and the Trojans. It could also end up being the make or break season for the Riley era.

The playoff is 12 teams now. There has never been more access for a power conference team to get in the tournament to play for a national championship than now. Since the playoff format was introduced in college football in 2014, USC has yet to make it in. The playoff was just four teams from 2014-2023, but expanded to 12 in 2024 after conference realignment.

One loss does not effectively end a team’s championship hopes as it once did before the 12-team playoff. Looking at USC’s schedule, it’s very reasonable to expect a 10-2 regular to result in a spot in the playoff.

The Trojans will be getting back starting quarterback Jayden Maiava for another season. Maiava threw for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns for USC last season. He was named Third-team All-Big Ten. USC already has the biggest position on the field filled out with someone who has shown an ability to succeed with Riley already.

USC also landed the No. 1 ranked 2026 recruiting class in the country. They’ll be true freshmen in 2026, but some of these top recruits like five-star defensive end Luke Wafle could definitely contribute right away.

If USC makes the playoff, that should be considered a success. Doing what they did last season and winning nine games, falling just short of the playoff would be a slight dissapointment. A result worse than last season could require big chances to be made in the program.

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