USC's Place Among National Title Contenders Heading Into Next Season

College Football personality Josh Pate revealed an early look at his “championship bubble” for the 2026 college football season on "Josh Pate's College Football Show". Pate put these teams in different tiers. The USC Trojans were in the second tier of this championship bubble.

Josh Pate's College Football "Championship Bubble" Tiers

USC Trojans Lincoln Riley College Football Playoff National Championship Josh Pate Big Ten Indiana Hoosiers Oregon Ducks — Oct 14, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley and Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman chat before the game at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

Pate started out by listing the teams in the “no brainer” tier. He listed 12 teams.

-Notre Dame Fighting Irish
-Ohio State Buckeyes
-Texas Longhorns
-Indiana Hoosiers
-Oregon Ducks
-Georgia Bulldogs
-Texas Tech Red Raiders
-Miami Hurricanes
-LSU Tigers
-Texas A&M Aggies
-Alabama Crimson Tide
-Oklahoma Sooners

“Those are teams really just based on roster talent alone, you cannot be excluding,” Pate said.

USC in "Brief Internal Debate" Tier

The next set of teams were in what he called the “brief internal debate” tier. These are teams that just miss that no-brainer tier, but there’s a path for them to win it all. USC finds themself in this group.

-USC Trojans
-Michigan Wolverines
-Ole Miss Rebels
-Florida Gators

“USC. You have the whole Lincoln Riley conundrum. Can he or can’t he? Are they tough enough? Are they going to get over the hump?” Pate said. “The thing about it is, USC this year will have their best roster they’ve had under Riley. It’s USC. You can’t leave them out of your bubble. So they’d go in.”

There's question marks around USC, but there is no debating that they have a lot of talent. It also helps that the Trojans are bringing back starting quarterback Jayden Maiava for another season.

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Teams Right Behind USC in Championship Bubble

The teams right behind USC are in Pate’s final group of teams in the championship bubble called the “significant internal debate” tier.

“Those are the teams you don’t think are going to win the title. We could simulate the season 20 times and they wouldn’t win the title,” Pate said. “However, there’s a non-zero chance that if everything lined up…it could theoretically happen.”

-Missouri Tigers
-Tennessee Volunteers
-Penn State Nittany Lions
-Auburn Tigers

Pate then added the teams he just had on the outside looking in and stated that by the time the season starts, he may add them into his championship bubble.

-Washington Huskies
-Iowa Hawkeyes
-BYU Cougars
-Clemson Tigers
-SMU Mustangs
-Louisville Cardinals
-Houston Cougars
-South Carolina Gamecocks

Can Trojans Get Back to Competing For Championships?

It has been a long time since the USC Trojans were consistently a championship contender. Over the past 15 seasons, USC has for the most part been a slightly above average power conference team that has sprinkled in a few seasons of double digit wins.

The Trojans have yet to make a College Football Playoff since the format was implemented in the 2014 season. That has to be the goal for this 2026 team as college football enters another season with a playoff and third with a 12-team playoff.

USC has a long history of winning but they have come up short of that ever since coach Pete Carroll left USC after the 2009 season. In the early 2000's under Carroll, USC won seven straight Pac-10 conference championships and two national championships. Since then, USC has won just one conference championship, the Pac-12 in 2017.

Things won't get any easier for USC when it comes to chasing a conference championship in the new-look Big Ten. Ever since conference realignment happened in 2024, the Big Ten has been the best conference in the country. Programs like the Oregon Ducks, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Indiana Hoosiers have had a firm grasp on success in the first two seasons of the revamped Big Ten.

USC has not been on the level of any of those teams. The Trojans will have to face all three of them in the 2026 season. USC is scheduled to host Oregon and Ohio State and then they will go on the road to play Indiana. All three of these teams are among the favorites to win the national championship next season. If USC wants to stamp their claim that they are a national title or even just a conference tite contender, they will have a chance to prove it in these games.

One team in Pate's "no brainer" tier that is not on USC's schedule this upcoming season is Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish and Trojans have had a long-standing rivalry that dates back to 1926, but the two sides could not come to an scheduling agreement for 2026.