Early Big Ten Projections Spell Trouble For USC, Lincoln Riley

The USC Trojans are still looking to make their first ever College Football Playoff. Will year five of Lincoln Riley as coach be the year they can finally get over that hump?

Nov 18, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley during the third quarter against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images | Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans enter the 2026 season with high expectations. CBS Sports revealed their way-too-early college football rankings for the Big Ten conference. 

USC Ranked No. 5 in Way-Too-Early Big Ten Rankings

Nov 11, 2023; Eugene, Oregon, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley, left, and Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning talk before a game at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

CBS Sports has USC as the No. 5 ranked team in the Big Ten next season. Here is the complete ranking of all 18 Big Ten teams. 

1. Indiana Hoosiers
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
3. Oregon Ducks
4. Michigan Wolverines
5. USC Trojans
6. Washington Huskies
7. Penn State Nittany Lions
8. Iowa Hawkeyes
9. Minnesota Golden Gophers
10. Nebraska Cornhuskers
11. Illinois Fighting Illini
12. UCLA Bruins
13. Northwestern Wildcats
14. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
15. Wisconsin Badgers
16. Michigan State Spartans
17. Maryland Terrapins
18. Purdue Boilermakers

If USC were to finish fifth, that could spell trouble. Being behind four other Big Ten teams would likely mean that USC would be left out of the College Football Playoff, unless the Big ten could get five teams in or USC would get in over a team that is ahead of them in the conference standings.

The Trojans have yet to make the College Football Playoff since the format was adopted in 2014. The past two seasons, the playoff was expanded from four to 12 teams, but USC has failed to make it in. If they come up short again in 2026, that would make three seasons of missing the 12-team playoff. 

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Can USC Make 12-Team College Football Playoff?

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) and head coach Lincoln Riley react after the game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

For USC coach Lincoln Riley, the pressure is starting to mount up. Riley signed a massive 10-year, $110 million contract after the 2021 season, leaving the Oklahoma Sooners for USC. Things got off to a promising start for Riley in Los Angeles as USC won 11 games in his first year there in 2022. They just missed the playoff after losing in the Pac-12 Championship game to the Utah Utes.

USC then regressed in 2023, going 8-5 and not being anywhere close to competing for the conference title or a playoff spot. 2024 was more of the same as USC finished with a 7-6 record. 2025 was a step in the right direction a the Trojans won nine games. However, it was still not enough to get in the playoff. 

USC football is one of the most historic and successful football programs in the country. The Trojans have consistently been able to pump out NFL talent and recruit at a high level. However the wins on the field have not been come as much as these other two things recently. 

Oct 28, 2023; Berkeley, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley before the game against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Back with Pete Carroll as head coach in the 2000’s, USC was a national title contender every season. The Trojans won seven consecutive Pac-10 conference championships and two national titles from 2002-2008. With the amount of money they decided to pay Riley, USC hoped to get back on track to being at this level again. That has not yet happened.

Now, it’s year five for Riley. Another season of missing the playoff would feel like a massive disappointment considering the talent on the roster.