National Analyst Opens Up About Direction of USC Under Chad Bowden

It’s been a busy offseason for the USC Trojans, which included signing the No. 1 ranked recruiting class in the 2026 cycle and hiring a brand-new defensive coordinator to change the culture on that side of the ball.

USC coach Lincoln Riley enters his fifth season as the Trojans head coach and the pressure is mounting. USC Trojans on SI's Kendell Hollowell dived into several topics surrounding the present and future of USC football with On3 college football analyst JD Pickell.

Trajectory of USC Football Program

USC Trojans Recruiting Class Chad Bowden College Football Playoff Schedule Lincoln Riley Jayden Maiava Mater Dei Mark Bowman — Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

USC saw immediate success in its first season under Riley. They won 11 games, quarterback Caleb Williams became the program’s eight Heisman Trophy winner, and the Trojans came close to reaching the four-team College Football Playoff. But an 8-5 finish in 2023 and 7-6 mark in 2024 had the program headed in the wrong direction.

“It was an exciting year and it feels like everything has been measured against that first year,” Pickell told USC Trojans on SI. “It almost felt like they won too early and didn’t have the roster and infrastructure to compete with where standards were set.”

Last season, the Trojans won nine games, a three-game improvement in the win column during the regular season from 2024. It’s been a slow build for Southern Cal to return to the national spotlight, but the 2025 season has been a step in the right direction on the field but also recruiting.

“The portal has made all of us in college football more impatient,” Pickell said. “You see success stories like Curt Cignetti in his second year with Indiana wins a Natty but in terms of the slow build, it feels like USC has built it in a sustainable way. You slowly but surely start to stockpile talent and then grab a guy in Jayden Maiava you keep around who is now going into his third year in the system.

“It hasn’t been exciting in terms of this quick ascension but I do think similar to other places across the country like Miami and Texas have been this way. A slow build in my mind usually means it’s a a more sustainable build when it comes to roster talent, culture, way of doing things. It feels like year five its actually fair now to expect a playoff berth and competing for a Big Ten title because you have done the work that’s required over the course of the last four years.”

Chad Bowden Changes the Temperature in the Room

USC saw a massive shift in recruiting when they hired general manager Chad Bowden away from rival Notre Dame just days after the Irish lost to Ohio State in the National Championship Game in January 2025. It was a long-winded search by Riley and athletic director Jen Cohen that went on for almost a year.

“It felt like when he arrived the lightbulb came on at USC,” Pickell said. “He talks about USC football and what they want to accomplish and the place that is in a personality and a tone that aligns with what USC fans deserve.”

Bowden drastically changed the vibe around the program when arrived in Los Angeles. He led a reshaped recruiting staff that models an NFL front office and was ultra-aggressive on the trail. Pair that with an improved NIL collectives that can compete with the rest of the country and a coaching staff that is excellent at building relationships and the result was the No. 1 ranked recruiting class in the 2026 cycle. Southern Cal is the first non-SEC team to sit atop the rankings since 2008.

“It felt good hearing him talk about USC the way that he did because it was like thank goodness you know what this place is supposed to be and you’re taking recruiting seriously," Pickell said. "It felt like USC was participating and they would attend what recruiting was supposed to be and it mattered enough because we have to do this, but when he showed up it became, we’re going to win at this.

“Purely the personality and intensity of it all I think is the biggest differencing factor. He’s a temperature changer for that place. Recruiting has always been the lifeblood but all that it requires now with the portal, high school and NIL, I think he’s been maniacal about it and it’s exactly what USC needed from a personality perspective.”

This offseason, the Trojans did a much better job with roster retention because of Bowden. He brought them into the modern age of college football and has them operating like a traditional blue blood.

Impact of Recruiting Southern California

USC Trojans general manager Chad Bowden hired from Notre Dame Fighting Irish | USC Trojans Video Youtube

Bowden put emphasis on restoring local ties in an effort the replicate the blueprint laid out by former USC coach Pete Carroll during the programs dominant run in the early 2000s that saw them win back-to-back national championships, reel off seven consecutive 11-win seasons and have three players win the Heisman Trophy, all of which are from Southern California.

Carroll built a fence around Southern California in recruiting. So much so that other programs wouldn’t bother coming into the Trojans territory. Any elite recruit in the region that received an offer from USC was almost assuredly going to end up wearing the Cardinal and Gold. But in the post-Carroll era, all of that faded.

The Trojans were no longer the preeminent recruiting force in Southern California. Schools such as Alabama and Oregon had more of a recruiting presence in recent years than USC. Georgia, Texas A&M, Ohio State and Washington were consistently plucking blue-chip prospects away from them. Bowden made it a priory to change the narrative.

“The thing I love about this class, a lot of SoCal guys, a lot of Trinity League guys,” Pickell said. “If you can be a dude in that league, I trust you to be able to step in and produce at a reasonably high level because you were already playing against college football players in the Trinity League. Mark Bowman and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt fire me up."

Dixon-Wyatt was a late addition to the Trojans recruiting class. The four-star receiver from nearby Mater Dei (Calif.) had announced his pledge to Ohio State last May but USC was able to flip him on the first day of the early signing period in December. He and Bowman were two of the four signees from the national powerhouse, including four-star defensive lineman Tomuhini Topui and linebacker Shaun Scott.

“My rule of thumb is, if Ohio State wants you to play receiver, you’re probably pretty good. The fact that they flipped him away from Ohio State makes me think he’s going to be able to contribute early. The Mater Dei guys in general are already pretty physically developed. The thing that keeps you off the field as a freshman is not there yet physically, gotta add x, y and z measurables or pounds and speed of the game.

“Well speed of the game won’t be too much because they played in the Trinity League, speed of the game won’t be too much because they play at Mater Dei. They’re not getting to USC learning how to lift or how to take care of their body because that’s already engrained in them. Those two I circle.”

The Trinity League is the premier conference in high school football. It features powerhouses such as Mater Dei, Santa Margarita and St. John Bosco, schools flooded with Power 4 talent every cycle. The Trojans signed eight recruits from the conference in 2026, which is more than they signed the previous four cycles combined, five. Kahuku (Hawaii) four-star linebacker Talanoa Ili was a three-year starter at Orange Lutheran (Calif.), a Trinity League school, before he transferred to the islands for his senior season. He would have made nine.

Santa Margarita won the Open Division State Championship this past season with three USC freshman in four-star receiver Trent Mosley and edge Simote Katoanaga and three-star cornerback Jayden Crowder.

USC has the luxury of being in the heart of a recruiting hotbed. They are one of the few schools that doesn’t have to hop on a plane to recruit because they are surrounded by elite high school talent within a 70-mile radius. In total, the Trojans signed 18 recruits from Southern California, more than the previous two cycles combined. Two more signees, five-star offensive tackle Keenyi Pepe and Ili, are originally from Southern California.

“There are several states if you put a fence around it or for Southern California, if you put a fence around your region, there is enough in-house to at minimum make the playoff, at best make a run and compete for national championships routinely," Pickell said. "Southern California, Texas, Florida and Georgia are that way.

"If you just win your state, you’re going to have enough to achieve at a tier one level in college football. Shutting off the water for everyone else that was the difference in this class. The fact you have all these in your backyard and you’re recruiting this way, that sets the tone for the future if they can keep that intact.”

How Much will USC Depend on Freshman Class?

USC also made waves outside of the state, headlined by five-star edge Luke Wafle, the No. 1 overall recruit according to Rivals, five-star defensive tackle Jaimeon Winfield, four-star cornerback Elbert Hill, the No. 1 ranked cornerback according to ESPN, and four-star receiver Boobie Feaster.

It’s an impressive group filled with players ready to contribute immediately in the fall. And the expectation is that several of them find the field but if the Trojans become heavily reliant on its freshman class, then it becomes a problem.

“If playing freshmen becomes plan A, then it becomes what were we doing these last couple of years with everyone else of this roster? That can’t be our go to here," Pickell said. "Now, if he becomes the best option then for sure let’s do it but it can’t be we’re out here on defense and we got nine freshmen playing. That probably means we did do enough everywhere on our roster and its year five.”

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Several teams that made runs in the College Football Playoffs such as Miami, Oregon and Ohio State had star freshmen that made tremendous contributions all season and led to their team's success. But they also had veterans that blossomed into stars after developing for years in the program.

“The perfect scenario for USC fans is we’re not depending on like Mark Bowman to be this all-conference tight end for us as freshman," Pickell said. "But he’s probably got a skill set and is polished enough to have that be a real conversation."

"You would think if your USC you don’t need to play like six or seven freshmen but if you can and they’re the best for you then let’s do that and let our best players play. When you land the No. 1 recruiting class, I would think part of the pitch for landing those guys would be, if you’re the best, we’re gonna let you cook here," he continued.

Jayden Maiava Leads Returning Offensive Production

Jayden Maiava made major strides in his first full season as the Trojans starting quarterback. He was more confident and comfortable running Riley’s offense. He grew more into a leadership role and the Trojans signal-caller ranked first in the Big Ten in passing yards and second in the country in QBR in 2025.

Maiava loses his star receivers in Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane, as well as his top two tight end in Lake McRee and Walker Lyons. But Maiava, who has 31 starts under belt between his time at UNLV and USC, will have the luxury of his two leading rushers in Waymond Jordan and King Miller returning in 2026, as well as all five starters on the offensive line.

“It’s huge, especially with what’s been the question about USC,” Pickell said. “Are they tough enough, are they the soft West Coast team in the Big Ten. I know last year they were one of the best teams running the ball, you bring back a bunch of the dudes that made that happen, along with the backfield. It provides a really high floor for the offense. Just knowing all things considered we got five dudes upfront who are going to protect our quarterback, we’re going to be able to run the football."

“We should score points. We’ll see how our receivers come along. That itself is such a huge edge. It goes back to the idea, we got a quarterback in year three, all o-line back, backfield you feel good about, you got an experienced dude calling the defense, even if he hasn’t been with you, I think bolsters that idea there’s no such thing as a perfect team or perfect opportunity but if it's not this year making a push for it, it’s going to feel underwhelming if they win eight games.”

Receiver could be a position that USC counts on several freshmen, but they do return a budding star in Tanook Hines. The Houston native earned a starting role coming out of fall as a true freshman, despite being a summer enrollee. And NC State transfer Terrell Anderson, a former top 100 recruit, comes over after a breakout sophomore campaign.

Defensive Culture Shift Under Gary Patterson

Former defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn left USC to take the same role with his alma mater, Penn State, in December.

The Trojans were diligent in the hiring process. It took longer than expected but eventually landed former longtime TCU head coach Gary Patterson, a 2026 College Football Hall of Fame electee. Riley is very familiar with Patterson from his time at Oklahoma as an offensive coordinator and head coach.

“It feels you hired the guy at the very least with two hands on the wheel, not going to crash the car, knows what he’s doing, a really high floor hire," Pickell said. "Which in the context since Riley has been there, kind of all anyone has asked for. Can the defense just be good enough to where the offense doesn’t have score 30 to win every game.

“Now you pair that with the personnel you built to be good enough. It felt like a steady move, like you hired an adult instead of trying to role the dice and hire the next version of whatever D’Anton Lynn was for you.”

Patterson brings over his patented 4-2-5 defense, which he popularized at TCU and led to the Horned Frogs finishing No. 1 in the country in yards allowed five times. It also matches the Trojans current roster construction. The 65-year-old coach plans to incorporate philosophies he learned while serving as a consultant at Texas and Baylor in recent years.

Patterson’s ability to identify talent and develop players was excellent at TCU. He turned players such as Jerry Hughes, a high school running back into an unanimous All-American and first round pick at defensive end or Jason Verrett, a 155 pound junior college transfer, that became a First Team All-American at cornerback and a first round pick as well.

The new Trojans defensive coordinator will have more talent in Los Angeles than at any point in his career.

College Football Playoff Expectations with Brutal Schedule

The Big Ten released the Trojans 2026 schedule and it’s brutal. They will face Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon, the one, two and five seed in last year’s playoff. And games against Washington and Penn State. USC does have Oregon, Washington and Ohio State at home in a tough month stretch.

“My thought looking at the schedule is you just protect home field, which is way easier said than done,” Pickell said. “If you win every game at the Coliseum, you’re a playoff team. Ohio State and Oregon are at home, so big ask, not a layup by any stretch of the imagination.”

This season is viewed as playoff or bust for Riley because the program has yet to appear in one, even in the extended 12-team format.

“I don’t think you fire Lincoln Riley if you don’t make the playoff, but you’re in a spot where you’re probably not going to have a quarterback that is as polished or familiar with the system, paired with a roster that just won nine games last year to really go make a push," Pickell said. "This is the year you can truly expect a playoff. It’s not just a clickbait idea to think that they can do something that resembles a playoff run in 2026.”