USC Trojans National Championship Odds Shift After Loss vs. Illinois

After suffering their first loss of the season to the No. 17 Illinois Fighting Illini, what are the USC Trojans' national championship odds entering Saturday's matchup against the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines?

Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Michigan State Spartans during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Several upsets in week 6 led to a major shift in contenders in the College Football Playoff. BetMGM recently released its National Championship odds following Week 6's stunning upsets that saw Penn State and Texas possibly playing themselves out of the playoff race after their stunning losses.

With several teams rising and falling in their odds to win the national championship, where do the USC Trojans land in their chances of capturing their 12th title?

USC's Current Odds to Win the National Championship

Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley speaks with the official during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

USC's current odds to win the national championship this season are at +8000, according to BetMGM. USC is tied with the Auburn Tigers and the Vanderbilt Commodores from the SEC with +8000 odds to win the national championship.

USC took a big hit in its chances of earning a spot in the playoff before its bye week, as it lost 34-32 to the No. 17 Illinois Fighting Illini on a game-winning field goal.

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The loss to Illinois is one of the main factors contributing to USC's low odds of winning the national championship, despite the strong start the Trojans have had in 2025 and the improvement from last season with quarterback Jayden Maiava. USC, under the leadership of Maiava, has been one of the most efficient and talented offenses in college football through six weeks of the season.

Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) celebrates his touchdown scored against the Michigan State Spartans with wide receiver Makai Lemon (6) and running back Waymond Jordan (2) during the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

USC's upcoming home matchup against the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines on Saturday is an opportunity not only for the Trojans to earn a statement win against a ranked conference opponent, but to boost their chances at the playoff and their odds at a national title.

Where Do the Trojans Rank Among Big Ten Teams In National Championship Odds?

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin (10) smiles after a touchdown pass to Carnell Tate during the NCAA football game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Oct. 4, 2025. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

USC ranks No. 6 among Big Ten teams with the highest national championship odds. The No. 1-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes (+425) and No. 3 Oregon Ducks (+500) are the two teams from the Big Ten with the highest national championship odds in college football.

Penn State, following its stunning 42-37 upset loss to the UCLA Bruins, still has the third-best odds in the Big Ten to win the national championship. The Nittany Lions' odds, however, dropped to +3000 as many believe that the loss suffered against a winless UCLA team has taken Penn State out of contention for the playoff.

No. 7 Indiana (+3000) and No. 15 Michigan (+4000) are the two Big Ten teams that are just ahead of USC in national championship odds. The Hoosiers are off to another hot start under second-year coach Curt Cignetti and will face off against No. 3 Oregon on Saturday at Autzen Stadium in a battle of undefeated 5-0 Big Ten teams.

USC and Michigan will face off on Saturday in front of a sold-out Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, with much on the line for both teams. USC and Michigan enter Saturday's matchup at 4-1, and the loser likely will have a much more difficult path of getting to the playoffs, while the winner will play its way into the conversation for a spot in the 12-team bracket.

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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