USC Trojans’ Playoff Chances Just Surpassed A Big Ten Powerhouse

The USC Trojans are off to a 2-0 start to the season. Heading into their first road game this weekend, what are the Trojans' current chances at making it to the College Football Playoff?

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts during the game against the Missouri State Bears at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

USC football is off to a hot start to the 2025 season with dominating offensive performances against Missouri State and Georgia Southern. Through two weeks of the season, contenders for the College Football Playoff are starting to come into form. Where do the Trojans land in terms of their chances to earn a spot in the 12-team playoff bracket?

Where Does USC Stand In The Big Ten Race For The CFP?

Sep 6, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) hands off the ball to running back Waymond Jordan (2) during the first half against the Georgia Southern Eagles at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The latest CFP bubble watch from ESPN's Heather Dinich breaks down what each team in the power four conference and the favorites from the group of five have at making the playoff.

In the Big Ten, the USC Trojans, after two weeks of games, were placed in the "work to do" category with a 59.3 percent chance of making the playoff. Other Big Ten teams that were included in the same category as USC included Indiana (21.5%), Illinois (14.1%), and Wisconsin (2.6%).

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The Big Ten is projected to have three teams in the playoff heading into week 3, which includes Ohio State (82.4%), Oregon (81.5%), and Penn State. Despite being placed in the "work to do" category, the Trojans have a higher chance at making it to the playoffs than Penn State, which is at 54.1 percent.

Oregon inside linebacker Jerry Mixon runs the ball for a touchdown after an interception as the Oregon Ducks host the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Sept. 6, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Matchups That Will Decide USC's Playoff Chances This Season

Sep 6, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans running back Waymond Jordan (2) Georgia Southern Eagles defensive back Ayden Jackson (5) and runs into the end zone for a touchdown during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Several matchups on USC's schedule this season will make or break the Trojans' chances at earning a spot in the playoff. A 10-2 record should be enough to get the Trojans into the playoffs, while being one of the best 9-3 teams in the country could also earn them a spot.

The Trojans have a tough road schedule, which includes crucial games against Illinois, Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Oregon. USC will also host Michigan at the Coliseum on Oct. 11. The way that things stand right now, the games against Notre Dame and Oregon are likely to be losses.

However, if the Trojans can go on the road and beat Nebraska and Illinois and defeat the Wolverines at home, they will be in a good position to make the playoff, especially with their two losses coming to teams that are likely to make the field.

This is, of course, assuming that USC doesn't slip up against its other Big Ten opponents on the schedule, which include home games against Michigan State, Northwestern, Iowa, and UCLA, as well as a road game this Saturday against Purdue.

A College Football Playoff Appearance Would Be A Boost For Lincoln Riley

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The last two seasons for USC coach Lincoln Riley have been a disappointment, to say the least. So, Riley leading the Trojans to a spot in the playoffs this season would be a huge turnaround and provide a much-needed boost in his fourth year as coach.

With so much pressure on Riley from the Trojans fanbase, earning a spot or even competing for the playoffs would keep him off the hot seat entering the 2026 season.