USC Trojans Receive Interesting Label As Lincoln Riley Criticism Mounts

Few programs in college football carry a wider range of outcomes than the USC Trojans in 2025. Depending on the projection, the Trojans could finish 11–1 and push for a Big Ten title or stumble to 6–6 and spark questions about USC coach Lincoln Riley’s future.

Jul 24, 2025; Las Vegas, NV, USA; USC head coach Lincoln Riley speaks to the media during the Big Ten NCAA college football media days at Mandalay Bay Resort. | Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans might be the hardest team in America to pin down heading into the 2025 season.

On a recent episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show, college football analyst Josh Pate listed USC among his four most unpredictable teams this fall, pointing to the razor-thin gap between a breakthrough year and another disappointment.

AP Poll vs. 'JP Poll'

Sep 28, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts after a game against the Wisconsin Badgers at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The respect gap is glaring. The AP Poll dropped USC all the way to No. 30 in its preseason rankings—a steep fall from grace for a program that had Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and College Football Playoff aspirations a few seasons ago. But Pate’s own JP Poll paints a different picture, slotting the Trojans at No. 15.

“We have not given up on USC. We have not given up on Lincoln Riley,” Pate insisted.

Still, he acknowledged the reasons behind national skepticism. USC dropped far too many games in 2024, including narrow defeats that exposed lingering flaws.

Historic Meltdown in 2024

Nov 30, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) scores a touchdown against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

A second-half collapse to Notre Dame where they allowed 35 points in the second half highlighted their defensive inconsistency, while a complete meltdown against UCLA where they surrendered 62 points to the Bruins underscored concerns about toughness at the line of scrimmage.

Add in an upset loss to an unranked Big Ten opponent in Minnesota, and suddenly the Trojans went from playoff hopeful to cautionary tale.

The question now is whether those breakdowns carry over—or spark the kind of course correction that carry over—or start the kind of course correction that could redefine Riley’s tenure in Los Angeles.

Ceiling or Collapse?

Nov 30, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

That’s why USC’s range of outcomes is so wide.

“If they’ve Big Ten-proofed their lines of scrimmage and they’re bigger and more physical and able to withstand a pounding… they could be 11–1,” Pate said. “They could also be six and six. You could be looking for a new head coach.”

The schedule underscores that unpredictability. USC faces Illinois, Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Oregon all on the road—matchups that test not only talent but also the discipline and toughness Riley’s teams have often lacked.

“If you don’t have good decision-making at the quarterback position, if you don’t have the ability to be consistent offensively, if you can’t control the line of scrimmage, you’re just going to disappoint again,” Pate warned.

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And yet, optimism still lingers. Pate recalled visiting the Trojans in the spring and being struck by Riley’s confidence.

“It was like he had the movie script in his hand… he’s got no doubt this is a great movie in my hands. You’ll see come fall,” he said, describing a head coach who believes USC is finally ready to prove critics wrong.

That duality—the potential for USC to either collapse or climb back into contention—is why Pate calls the Trojans one of the ultimate wild cards in 2025. The stakes are massive, and the range of possibilities is unlike almost any other program in the country.

As Pate himself put it: “So was that it? Does [Riley] really have a classic in the works? We’ll see. I told you so in advance.”