Three Things Lincoln Riley Can’t Afford to Have Happen This Season

In a season with expectations to make the College Football Playoff, USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley must avoid these three things from happening.

Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The 2026 college football season is a big one and filled with high expectations for USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley. 

In what will be his fifth season as coach of the Trojans, USC fans are putting the pressure on Riley to lead the team to the College Football Playoff for the first time in their program history. Riley has all the tools to have a successful fifth season at USC, including the return of star quarterback Jayden Maiava, a high-powered offense, and the arrival of the No. 1-ranked recruiting class in the nation.

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) and head coach Lincoln Riley react after the game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Entering a make-or-break season, here’s a breakdown of three things that Riley can’t afford to have happen this year, a critical one that could shape the future of the Trojans football program.

Missing the College Football Playoff

Dec 30, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws the ball against the TCU Horned Frogs in the first half during the Alamo Bowl at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Missing the College Football Playoff is the last thing that Trojan fans want to happen this season. With so much talent on their roster, missing the CFP would be considered a colossal failure for Riley and one of the most storied programs in college football. Given how much pressure Riley is facing this season and the talent on the Trojans roster, missing the CFP could signal the end of his tenure in Los Angeles. 

In his four seasons as coach of the Trojans, Riley and USC have come just short of earning a spot in the CFP on two separate occasions, including last season, where they finished with a 9-4 overall record and went 7-2 in Big Ten play. 

Losing Multiple Road Games

Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love (4) celebrates after getting a first down in the first half of a NCAA football game against Southern California at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025, in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

During his four seasons as coach, the Trojans have struggled to win on the road, resulting in them falling short of the CFP. This struggle was on full display last season as the Trojans lost all three of their road games against the Illinois Fighting Illini, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and Oregon Ducks. 

Winning on the road will be key for the Trojans to make the CFP, and Riley’s USC group can’t afford to lose more than one game on the road, given they have tough home tests against the Oregon Ducks and Ohio State Buckeyes. 

Some of the Trojans marquee road matchups this season include a trip to Happy Valley for what could be the whiteout game against the Penn State Nittany Lions. The Trojans will also face the defending national champions, the Indiana Hoosiers, in November.

Defense Inconsistency Continues

Oct 23, 2021; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson reacts during the first half against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

While USC’s offense is as good as any in college football, it’s been its defense that has held the Trojans back in recent years. Last season, in all four of their losses, the Trojans gave up 30-plus points. 

This offseason, following the departure of D’Anton Lynn to the Penn State Nittany Lions, the Trojans brought in former TCU coach Gary Patterson as their new defensive coordinator. Patterson is aiming to reshape the Trojans defense and have the group play at a high level throughout the season. 

The consistent performance of the Trojans defense will be among the several x-factors in USC's success at reaching the CFP. Inconsistent defense in some of their biggest games of the season is ultimately what will hold them back.

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