Predicting USC Trojans' Biggest X Factor

The USC Trojans will be looking to make the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history in 2026. USC has some key returners but also many big additions that could make a difference.

Who is USC’s biggest X factor this season?

Gary Patterson USC’s Biggest X Factor

usc trojans college football playoff x factor big ten defensive coordinator gary patterson tcu horned frogs lincoln riley — TCU coach Gary Patterson during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the TCU Horned Frogs at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 16, 2021. Oklahoma won 52-31. Ou Vs Tcu | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

ESPN released their top 25 teams in the country and added the biggest X factor for each team. They ranked USC No. 20 and had their biggest X factor defensive coordinator Gary Patterson.

Patterson is entering his first season as defensive coordinator with USC. He is most well known for his 20-plus years as the head coach of the TCU Horned Frogs from 2000-2021. At TCU, Patterson had an overall record of 181-79. He led the Horned Frogs to six conference titles in his time here.

After leaving TCU, Patterson was a special head coaching assistant with the Texas Longhorns in 2022 and a consultant for the Baylor Bears in 2024. Now, he’s going to be back calling up plays during games. USC’s defense improved under their former defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn in 2024 and 2025. Lynn departed USC this offseason to take the defensive coordinator position with his alma mater, the Penn State Nittany Lions.

In 2025, USC allowed 23.0 points per game, the 51st fewest in the country.

Will Patterson be able to get USC’s to a level where it can compete for conference and national titles?

“Patterson has the credentials, but he hasn’t been a full-time coach since he was fired mid-2021 amid TCU’s fall into mediocrity,” Kyle Bonagura of ESPN said. “Perhaps the Riley-Patterson pairing can allow both of them to recapture the high-level success they experienced earlier in their careers.”

USC coach Lincoln Riley and Patterson coached against one another during their time together in the Big 12 conference: Patterson with TCU and Riley with the Oklahoma Sooners.

USC is coming off a 2025 season where they finished with an overall record of 9-4. Riley has four years under his belt at USC with an overall record of 35-18. 2025 was an improvement from the year prior, but Trojans fans have been waiting for the program to take the next step.

That next step is making a College Football Playoff. If USC fails to make the playoff in the fifth year of the Riley era, there will be question marks about the future of the program and if it's in the right hands with Riley.

It won't be an easy task to make the playoff for USC. They have a difficult Big Ten conference schedule, as they are slated to face the top three teams in the league from last season during the regular season: the Oregon Ducks, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Indiana Hoosiers. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, USC has odds of +240 to make the 12-team playoff this season.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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