USC Trojans Win Total Prediction: Over or Under

After an 8-4 record in 2025, the USC Trojans are looking to increase their win tally and make a College Football Playoff run for the first time ever.

Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley walks the field before the CFP national championship game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Georgia Bulldogs at SoFi Stadium. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Heading into the 2026 season, BetMGM Sportsbook has USC’s regular season win total set at 8.5. While reaching nine wins is certainly possible, three high-profile matchups could also result in three losses for the Trojans.

USC Trojans Schedule Prediction

USC Trojans defensive coordinator Gary Patterson | USC Trojans on SI

The Trojans will win their first four games outright, including a road win in Piscataway against Rutgers. Riley and company will have the chance to find a rhythm and key players en route to their first true test.

The Trojans then have two crucial games in the Coliseum that will determine their playoff chances and the true nature of Gary Patterson’s defense. 

Their week 4 matchup against the Oregon Ducks will be the first real test and the Trojans will be playing with revenge in their minds.

Last year, Ducks quarterback Dante Moore and his offense tore up the Trojan defense with 436 yards, including 179 rushing yards, in their 42-27 win. But Oregon’s well-rounded team led by Moore and their elite defensive front seven, including former Trojan Bear Alexander will most likely give USC their first loss of the season.

Southern California’s Jayden Maiava, center, scrambles against Oregon during the second half Nov. 22, 2025. | Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard

Ohio State will come into the Coliseum on Halloween for the first time since 2008, where they lost to top-ranked USC in a lopsided 35-3 game. Don’t be surprised if the Buckeyes come in with a loss or two. They will have two road game tests, Texas and defending champs Indiana, before facing USC.

Led by offensive duo quarteback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State is loaded with talent but if there is something to be worried about, it’s defensive coordinator Matt Patricia’s unit. The Buckeyes led the nation last year with the number one-ranked defense. Despite only having three defensive returners this year, the defensive pressure from Ohio State and USC’s strong offense can result in a close game, perhaps a field goal ending loss.

Another Loss for the USC Trojans

When the Trojans entered the Big Ten in 2024, no one could’ve predicted that a trip to Bloomington would be a tough test. But that is exactly what Curt Cignetti and his team have built.

The defending national champions' 2026 team bolsters some new faces including TCU transfer Josh Hoover taking over Fernando Mendoza at quarterback. While Boston College transfer Turbo Richard is looking to take the lead at running back. Michigan State transfer Nick Marsh and returner Charlie Becker will be a tough test for the Trojans’ secondary.

USC would come into this mid-November game with two losses and a College Football Playoff berth on the line. Road games were a struggle for the Trojans last season, all four regular season losses came on the road. Even with two road game wins against Penn State and Wisconsin, the road demons will get the best of the Trojans in Bloomington.

Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) celebrates his touchdown scored against the Northwestern Wildcats during the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

With losses to Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana, the Trojans would finish the year 9-3, hitting their win total but likely leaving them just outside of a playoff berth.

That outcome would place even greater scrutiny on Lincoln Riley as he enters his fifth year at USC. With expectations rising and the margin for error shrinking, the 2026 campaign could become the most consequential and intense year of Riley’s tenure. 

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